AYA financial health memo November 2019

As of November 2019, this regular podcast is available on our Andy Yeh Alpha fintech network platform.

MIT financial economist Simon Johnson rethinks capitalism with better market incentives.
Johnson refers to the recent Business Roundtable CEO statement that focuses on better stakeholder value maximization for workers, customers, and suppliers.
Johnson proposes 3 main issues when we reconsider capitalism in response to the neoliberal consensus.
First, market incentives are often positive in some specific contexts.
It is not enough for entrepreneurs to raise capital to promote good social causes.
Entrepreneurs often need a sustainable business model that promises steady future profits.
Only profitable ventures survive the test of time, so founders and executive managers tend to fixate on near-term profitability.
Second, powerful policymakers and interest groups can distort sensible economic analysis to bolster the consensus view of business sustainability.
It would be better for all parties to strike a delicate balance between public efforts and private motives.
However, ulterior motives cannot align well with good causes.
Third, the private sector typically cannot take into account negative externalities.
In this light, the public sector may need to play an important role in advancing basic science for better health care, infrastructure, and technology.
On balance, this reconsideration helps enhance macro policy outcomes in light of climate change and economic inequality.

Berkeley macro economist Brad DeLong sees no good reasons for an imminent economic recession with mass unemployment and depression.
The current U.S. economic expansion can sustain over the longer run when the Trump administration helps direct people and resources from low to high-marginal-return productive activities.
There is no clear sign of an economic recession with higher unemployment in light of moderate wage inflation, low price inflation, and reasonable economic output.
These fundamental considerations suggest that the current U.S. economic boom is likely to sustain at least over the medium term.
However, envy and greed are often the muses that almost always convince some stock market investors to buy equity bets at the peak of an asset bubble.
Later these stock market investors would wonder why there are no more hints of the probable risks or black swans.
The same economic rationale also applies to more generic investors who retain an active interest in bonds, currencies, futures, and precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum.
As the Federal Reserve maintains the current dovish interest rate adjustments with Treasury fiscal stimulus packages such as tax cuts and infrastructure expenditures etc, an economic recession cannot be imminent under normal labor market conditions.

American unemployment declines to the 50-year historical low level of 3.5% with moderate job growth.
Despite a sharp slowdown in U.S. services and utilities, non-farm payrolls increase by 135,000-to-145,000 jobs on average per month in the current fiscal year 2019-2020.
The Economist and Reuters now both forecast higher U.S. non-farm payrolls in the next few quarters.
As the U.S. unemployment rate tends to rise ahead of an economic recession, the recent fresh decline in American unemployment pushes out the timeline for any potential recession into late-2020.
U.S. core CPI inflation remain below the 2% target, and wage growth gradually declines from 3.2% to 2.9% per year.
The U.S. labor market grows sustainably in the early resolution of uncertainty around the Sino-American trade conflict, Federal Reserve monetary policy reversal, U.S. Treasury fiscal stimulus, and asset price normalization for oil, gold, and the greenback.
Several stock market analysts and investment bankers expect the U.S. economy to grow at 2%-3% per annum in 2019-2020.
This reasonable real GDP momentum accords with the main stock market investment thesis that the Trump tax cuts help finance the current economic boom.
U.S. fiscal stimulus hence contributes to greater economic growth, domestic job creation, and capital investment.

New computer algorithms and passive fund managers run the stock market.
Morningstar shows that the total dollar amount of passive equity assets reaches $4.3 trillion worldwide.
Passive fund managers, institutions, and algorithms help run this passive equity asset management.
The $4.3 trillion barometer bypasses the total dollar amount of active equity funds that humans manage on a regular basis.
Smart machines and algorithms now take control of investing in the global stock markets.
Computer rules and algorithms help manage active equity funds that account for 35% of U.S. public corporations, 60% of institutional equity assets, and another 60% of active equity bets.
New artificial intelligence programs contribute to fresh stock investment rules that only some active fund managers can partly understand.
In recent years, smart technology transforms many industries from food delivery to online video content curation, but stock market investment is unique because institutional investors exert voting power over public corporations for better wealth creation and redistribution.
This stock market investment transformation serves as a smart tech-savvy response to the general mistrust of financial institutions in America, Europe, and some parts of East Asia.
Profitable alpha algorithms can hence help active fund managers make wiser stock market investment decisions.

The Economist offers a special report that the new normal state of economic affairs shines fresh light on the division of labor between central banks and governments.
The current U.S. economic outlook combines full employment with low inflation, and this rare combination accords with the Federal Reserve dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability.
The New Keynesian Phillips curve becomes flat in recent times, and there is no inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
In America, the unemployment rate reaches 3.5% or the lowest level since 1969.
The core inflation rate hovers in the range of 1.5%-1.7% or well below the 2% target inflation rate.
On the one hand, the Federal Reserve may continue to reduce the interest rate to help sustain the current U.S. stock market rally and economic expansion in response to a vocal president.
On the other hand, these dovish rate cuts suggest that the U.S. central bank may have fewer policy levers to better cope with the next economic recession.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury continues to offer Americans fiscal stimulus packages in the generic form of both tax incentives and infrastructure expenditures.
Whether fiscal deficits can cause higher inflation remains a major economic policy concern.

The new Brexit deal boosts British pound appreciation and economic optimism.
British prime minister Boris Johnson wins the parliamentary vote on his new Brexit bill, but then loses the second vote on Brexit legislation by the deadline of 31 October 2019.
In recent times, Johnson considers another attempt to call a general election.
In response, the Labour Party opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn may back a second referendum on Brexit to garner greater parliamentary support.
The European Union is likely to grant an extension until 31 January 2020 to leave time for the U.K. parliamentary vote.
In this best-case scenario, Johnson would have a second chance to secure a majority in the British Parliament.
In the meantime, the potential risk of a no-deal Brexit substantially declines to allow the British pound to hold most of its recent hefty gains as high as 8%.
Brexit remains the biggest barometer of British pound exchange rate fluctuations.
Although Brexit may mean better fiscal stimulus for British health care, the probable trade retrenchment and foreign capital exodus can cause substantive economic policy uncertainty around British trade, capital investment, and currency stabilization.
When push comes to shove, these imminent economic considerations shine fresh light on Brexit.

Apple upstream semiconductor chipmaker TSMC boosts capital expenditures to $15 billion with almost 10% revenue growth by December 2019.
Due to high global demand for faster mobile microchips and new 5G high-end smart phones, TSMC expects robust revenue and net profit growth in 2020-2022.
This bullish prediction helps assuage investor fear and anxiety in the early resolution of uncertainty around the Sino-American interim partial trade agreement.
TSMC CEO C.C. Wei expects to achieve 20%+ 5G smartphone market penetration for 2020.
TSMC serves several major clients such as Apple, HuaWei, and Qualcomm worldwide.
Meanwhile, TSMC raises its new capital expenditures to $15 billion from an earlier conservative forecast of $10 billion for the next fiscal year 2020.
In recent years, TSMC surpasses its U.S. archrival Intel to become the biggest high-performance microchip producer as TSMC maintains its $250 billion stock market capitalization in comparison to $230 billion stock market capitalization for Intel.
From January 2019 to September 2019, TSMC ships at least 185 million smart phones.
This landmark achievement is only second to the Chinese tech titan HuaWei.
In essence, the robust stock market momentum among HuaWei, Intel, and TSMC etc suggests that a major global tech slowdown seems less likely.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicates that the central bank would resume Treasury bond purchases to avoid turmoil in money markets.
Powell emphasizes that this effort can help sustain the current economic expansion without any form of prior quantitative-easing (QE) asset purchase programs.
As the Federal Reserve may start expanding its balance sheet again, however, stock market investors should not misconstrue this decision as a tactical return to QE asset purchase programs in the post-crisis economic revival.
This operation helps the Federal Reserve counterbalance some major economic headwinds such as domestic liquidity constraints and greenback fluctuations.
Powell further indicates the generic inclination of Federal Reserve policymakers toward further cutting the interest rate in November-December 2019.
Several stock market analysts and economic media commentators contend that the recent Powell remarks seem to accommodate both geopolitical risks and economic woes in response to a vocal president.
In this light, many stock market analysts convey the grave concern that the Federal Reserve may have fewer policy levers left for the next economic recession as the central bank continues to trade off monetary policy independence with political demand.
After all, there are no good reasons for the sudden recent reversal of monetary policy normalization.

America expects to impose punitive tariffs on $7.5 billion European exports due to the recent WTO rule violation of illegal airplane subsidies.
World Trade Organization rules that the U.S. can impose hefty 25% tariffs on $7.5 billion European goods such as coffee, wine, whisky, cheese, and so forth in retaliation for illegal subsidies for the European airplane-maker Airbus.
This decision may spark a tit-for-tat trade conflict between Europe and the U.S. to further destabilize a fragile global economy in the recent dawn of an interim partial trade deal between China and America.
The major stock markets from S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq to FTSE and Euro Stoxx 50 plunge substantially in response to the new resolution of a 15-year trade dispute between Europe and America.
As of mid-October 2019, the U.S. trade institution targets Britain, France, Germany, and Spain as the primary Eurozone consortium countries for Airbus airplane production.
As U.S. trade rep Robert Lighthizer suggests, the WTO now confirms that the U.S. can impose countermeasures in response to the European illegal subsidies for Airbus.
Lighthizer expects to begin new trade negotiations with European counterparts to resolve this complex issue in a consistent way that would benefit American workers.

The Trump administration expects to reach an interim partial trade deal with China.
This interim partial trade deal represents the first phase of a comprehensive trade deal between China and America.
The Trump administration suspends additional tariff hikes on Chinese imports.
Also, the Trump administration introduces a currency pact to prevent China from instituting deliberate interest rate adjustments with unfair competitive currency devaluation.
U.S. trade envoy Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin praise good progress on intellectual property protection and financial market liberalization in China.
To help reduce the current trade imbalance, China plans to purchase $40 billion to $50 billion U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans and pork bellies.
This interim partial trade deal suggests that it may be too early for both sides to agree on the more difficult enforcement of protective checks and balances for U.S. patents, trademarks, and copyrights.
President Trump expects to meet Chinese President Xi at the APEC summit in November 2019.
It is likely for both Presidents Trump and Xi to sign the interim partial trade deal at the summit.
Global stock markets surge 3%-5% from S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq to Shanghai and Shenzhen in response to this trade deal.

Chinese trade delegation offers to boost purchases of U.S. agricultural products to reach an interim partial trade deal with the Trump administration.
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He indicates an active interest from China in buying $40 billion to $50 billion American agricultural products such as soybeans and pork bellies.
China expects the Trump administration to institute another tariff reprieve in light of this interim partial trade agreement.
Hence, there would be no 5% tariff hike on top of the current 25% tariffs on $250 billion Chinese goods and services.
Also, China expects the Trump administration to circumvent blacklisting some Chinese tech titans such as HuaWei and Tencent.
However, U.S. trade envoy Robert Lighthizer emphasizes that the HuaWei case should be kept separate from the interim partial trade deal.
Chinese trade delegation indicates an active interest in keeping the renminbi currency steady within reasonable ranges of exchange rates.
Any further competitive currency manipulation or misalignment would not serve in the best interests of both countries.
In addition, China plans to further open up its financial market by lifting foreign capital investment restrictions from April 2020 onwards.
On balance, peace and engagement can help attain the best compromise in Sino-American trade negotiations.

Kourtney Kardashian shares the best money advice from her father.
This advice reminds her that money cannot buy happiness.
As the eldest of the Kardashian clan, Kourtney Kardashian has 3 children and net worth of $35 million on Money.com.
She has almost 82 million followers on Instagram.
Kourtney Kardashian is not the richest of the Kardashian empire, which includes Kris Jenner, Kim Kardashian West, Khloe Kardashian, and Kylie Jenner.
In terms of personal wealth, Kylie Jenner tops the Kardashian clan and is now the youngest self-made billionaire.
Kourtney Kardashian now runs her latest business venture Poosh as an online health and wellness website.
She maintains the long-term view that new business ventures sometimes can take a bit longer to return cash flows in accordance with most generic expectations.
In the modern age of digital technology proliferation, people have a short attention span and often prefer immediate gratification and the early resolution of uncertainty.
Kourtney Kardashian further shares the personal finance tip that people should be more conscious of regular expenses by retaining small increments of cash as emergency funds.
People should learn to delay gratification and early harvest to reap rewards over the longer run.
Patience pays well in time.


AYA finbuzz podcast November 2019
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