AYA Analytica financial health memo August 2019
As of August 2019, this regular podcast is available on our Andy Yeh Alpha fintech network platform.
The conventional wisdom suggests that chameleons change their skin coloration in order to camouflage their presence for better survival through Darwinian biological evolution.
This naive intuition seems so natural and nomological that most people tend to assume so on the basis of common sense.
However, scientific research shows that chameleons run much faster than their predators.
This fresh insight leads subsequent scientists to view camouflage as only part of the story for this functional skin coloration.
More recent research suggests that chameleons typically vary their skin coloration to express social signals in response to other chameleons, external conditions, and physiological changes.
Specifically, bright skin color signals an aggressive emotion while dark skin color reflects a submissive reaction.
Overall, scientific research trumps basic intuition and common sense. The same idea applies to the economic science of dynamic asset management too.
We often need to learn from fundamental factors in order to decipher economic insights into how macroeconomic fluctuations manifest in the cross-section of average asset returns.
These fundamental factors include the return spreads between the top-to-bottom 30% of individual stocks for size, value, momentum, asset growth, cash profitability, and market risk exposure.
Our proprietary alpha investment algorithm serves this fundamental purpose.
Santa-Barbara political economy professor Benjamin Cohen proposes new countercyclical fiscal stimulus to complement the current low-interest-rate monetary policy.
Cohen indicates that global interest rates persist at low thresholds in the current decade.
In all OECD and several other economies, low interest rates cannot bounce back too far from the zero lower bound during the global financial crisis.
In Japan, Europe, and Switzerland, the risk-free interest rates fall below zero.
In this context, the major central banks have little room for new interest rate reductions as the global economy gradually moves toward the next recession.
In response to the current Sino-U.S. trade truce and Brexit economic uncertainty, Cohen proposes new fiscal stimulus as an alternative policy instrument for global economic revival.
This new fiscal stimulus can manifest in the generic form of tax credits, transfer payments, and government expenditures in health care, infrastructure, education, and technology.
Nevertheless, Cohen adds the cautionary caveat that lawmakers may remain reluctant to increase fiscal deficits on top of post-crisis national debt mountains.
To the extent that legislators may become wary of potential backlash in midterm elections, it is important for politicians and technocrats to strike a better balance between democratic accountability and elite interest entrenchment.
Partisanship matters more than the relative socioeconomic influence of the rich and elite interest groups.
This new trend emerges from the recent empirical analysis of 49 Senate votes on socioeconomic and foreign-policy issues from 2001 to 2015 as well as national survey data from Gallup and Pew.
This empirical analysis shows that the rich elite income groups seem to get what they want from their senators about 60% of the time, whereas, the poor income groups receive a 55% fair chance.
When these socioeconomic echelons oppose each other on both sides of a particular policy issue, Senate votes favor the rich with a significantly higher 63% fair chance.
In this specific scenario where the rich and poor voters oppose each other on a given policy issue, Democratic senators side with the rich only 35% of the time, whereas, Republican senators vote in accordance with rich elite interests 86% of the time.
Since Republicans now hold majority control in Senate, U.S. congressional decisions predominantly benefit the upper echelon because legislators often follow the party line.
Affluent influence that results from U.S. partisan influence can be worrisome.
However, the American median voter experience is not the same as living in an oligarchy.
Warren Buffett indicates that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.
With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per annum.
This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000.
From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share.
Thus, the equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x.
This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x.
Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem.
If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.
From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.
Fundamental factors often reflect macroeconomic innovations and so help inform better stock investment decisions.
Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama and his long-time co-author Ken French empirically discover that several fundamental factors help price the cross-section of average asset returns.
These factors include the average return spreads between the top-and-bottom stock portfolios that the econometrician sorts on size, value, momentum, asset growth, cash profitability, and market risk exposure.
In terms of stock market capitalization, small stocks often outperform large stocks by a significant 5%-7% factor premium.
Value stocks consistently beat glamour stocks by a 7%-9% factor premium.
Further, investors can earn hefty average returns on stocks with high recent price performance, low capital-intensive asset growth, high cash profitability, and low market risk exposure.
AQR Capital investment practitioners find that both value and momentum factor premiums significantly persist in global asset markets.
To the extent that factor premiums exhibit mutual causation with macroeconomic fluctuations, this causation serves as a new condition for fundamental factor selection.
As investors learn from their behavioral biases, quirks, and other investment mistakes, these investors tilt their asset portfolios toward high factor premiums.
This fundamental factor investment approach helps generate consistent supernormal average asset returns in the long run.
The recent British pound depreciation is a big Brexit barometer.
Britain anoints former London mayor and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson as the new prime minister.
The Conservative Party selects Johnson as the successor to Theresa May to set the stage for fresh Brexit negotiations with the European Commission.
This change hits the pound with volatile exchange rate gyrations.
The British pound sinks to the new lowest level of US$1.24 in 2017-2019.
Johnson indicates that he would be keen to force Brexit with or without a post-May deal on October 31, 2019, which is the latest deadline for Britain to depart the European Union.
Alternatively, Britons might consider a second referendum on Brexit with the backstop agreement for free flows of goods between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.
Stock market analysts predict that leaving the European Union without a proper deal would plunge the U.K. into an economic recession due to Eurozone trade constraints and capital outflows.
U.K. stock markets would fall 5% in light of a 2% decrease in economic output, and the pound would likely plummet 10%+.
This prediction accords with what the U.K. Office for Budget Responsibility suggests in its recent report on the British economic outlook.
House Judiciary Committee summons senior executive reps of the tech titans to assess online platforms and their market power.
These tech firms include Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (F.A.M.G.A.).
Congressional committee members focus on whether these tech giants abuse their clout to crush their rivals in social media, e-commerce, software, Internet search, and artificial intelligence.
Antitrust scrutiny and tech compliance stem from the sheer size of F.A.M.G.A. and thus remain key bipartisan regulatory issues in America.
F.A.M.G.A. represent the cumulative $4+ trillion equity valuation or almost 15% of U.S. stock market capitalization, and also amass $180+ billion in pre-tax profits or about 10% of pre-tax profits made by U.S. public corporations.
In recent years, F.A.M.G.A. have spent billions buying rivals to stifle competition.
The major merger deals include:
(1) the $20 billion aggressive acquisitions of Instagram, WhatsApp, and Oculus by Facebook;
(2) the $15 billion acquisitions of Whole Foods Market, CloudEndure, and PillPack by Amazon;
(3) the $45 billion acquisitions of LinkedIn, Skype, GitHub, and Nokia by Microsoft;
(4) the $16 billion acquisitions of DeepMind, Motorola, and Nest by Google; and
(5) the $10 billion acquisitions of Beats, Dialog Semiconductor, Lattice Data, LinX, MapSense, PrimeSense, Semetric Music, Shazam, Topsy, and Turi etc by Apple.
Amazon faces E.U. antitrust scrutiny over the current e-commerce use of merchant data.
The European Commission probes into whether Amazon uses third-party seller data to promote its own products to the detriment of other retailers.
This antitrust investigation serves as an incremental step toward better characterizing Amazon e-commerce business practices.
The preliminary inquiry helps reveal how tech titans such as Amazon may use customer information to reinforce their market power.
The core concern arises from negative feedback from European third-party sellers, retailers, and manufacturers that Amazon has been trying to abuse its dual role as a direct e-commerce competitor and also as an online marketplace for merchants.
Under the current Amazon terms of service for Europe, third-party sellers and other merchants grant Amazon royalty-free rights to use their product information, content, technology, and trademark design etc.
European Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager indicates that global e-commerce platforms should not eliminate consumer benefits such as better product prices and choices through anti-competitive business practices.
E.U. regulators can impose fines up to 10% of global sales; however, some antitrust experts point out the essential need for the European Commission to establish a new precedent of industry standards and best practices for cross-border e-commerce.
Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes.
The company adds only 2.7 million new subscribers in 2019Q2 in stark contrast to 5 million new subscribers that most stock analysts expect to see in the latest income statement.
The disappointment suggests an inevitably high price elasticity of demand for Netflix media services and so causes the recent 11%-14% double-digit depreciation of Netflix shares.
This issue poses a major challenge to the current unsustainable business model as Netflix faces fierce competition from numerous media service and content providers such as Amazon, Apple, Disney, HBO, NBC, WarnerMedia, and YouTube etc.
Netflix may lose valuable subscribers who can choose to switch to several other original content providers.
Specifically, WarnerMedia expects to confirm an exclusive license for HBO to stream one of the most popular TV shows, Friends, in addition to Pretty Little Liars and The Fresh Prince of Bel Air.
Also, NBC seeks to secure the exclusive license for streaming all 9 seasons of The Office.
With 150+ million premium subscribers worldwide, Netflix needs to carefully mull over the next strategic pivot for better monetization (such as online advertisement) to turn around the fundamental economic outlook.
Facebook reaches a $5 billion settlement with Federal Trade Commission over Cambridge Analytica user privacy violations.
Federal Trade Commission (FTC) probes into prevalent user privacy practices across the social media ecosystem of Facebook, Messenger, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
FTC commissioners break along party lines, 3-to-2, as the GOP majority votes line up to support the $5 billion settlement (whereas Democratic commissioners object this pact).
This punitive fine is the single largest one against a tech titan by the FTC to date, but some progressive lawmakers remain furious primarily due to the controversial inadequacy of FTC curtailing future data leaks and breaches of the same sort of Cambridge Analytica.
The Cambridge Analytica data debacle may have already compromised the personal data for about 87 million Facebook users.
FTC requires Facebook to establish a new independent Privacy Committee of directors on the current corporate board.
This committee would oversee all necessary audit functions to ensure strict compliance with FTC privacy rules and best practices.
With 53% majority control rights, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg may inadvertently be able to influence the nomination and appointment of independent directors on the Privacy Committee.
The current settlement can cause ripple effects on the broader corporate governance structure.
McKinsey Global Institute analyzes 315 U.S. cities and 3,000 counties in terms of how tech automation affects their workers in the next 5 to 10 years.
This analysis indicates that the zip code of primary residence may be the most important determinant of the economic future for the middle class.
The 25 U.S. mega-cities and their peripheries are home to about a third of the American workforce.
These metropolitan areas are likely to continue to capture more than 60% of U.S. job growth in the next few years.
By contrast, 54 suburban areas and 2,000 rural counties are home to only a quarter of the U.S. population, and these rural areas may suffer with virtually zero employment growth in the next decade.
In this light, America is a mosaic of local economies that traverse on divergent economic trajectories.
Robotic automation and artificial intelligence may inadvertently widen these economic disparities.
The McKinsey report further indicates that the current tech trends may displace about 12 million Hispanic and African-American workers in the next few years.
The government needs to invest in high education to build the American workforce of the new century, and this public investment should focus on closer employer-educator partnerships.
Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz maintains that globalization only works for a few elite groups; whereas, the government has to reassert itself in terms of both redistribution and regulation.
The rich and elite interest groups have better socioeconomic opportunities than others.
From college education to the family stock ownership of public corporations, these elite groups perpetuate their socioeconomic advantages from generation to generation.
In most tech-savvy sectors, a few dominant tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (F.A.M.G.A.) create almost insurmountable barriers to entry.
Under the Trump administration, banks and insurance companies face less stringent macroprudential rules and regulations; public corporations and high net-worth individuals enjoy lower income taxes; big biotech and pharmaceutical firms and health insurance companies exploit millions of Americans with astronomical medicine prices.
However, U.S. real wages stagnate for the bottom echelon of American society in the 60 years from 1959 to 2019.
The current policy debate calls for greater government investments in infrastructure, education, technology, and environmental sustainability.
The Federal Reserve should herald interest rate adjustments to better ensure inflation control, maximum sustainable employment, and financial market stabilization.
Meanwhile, the Treasury should exercise fiscal prudence and discipline in national debt and budget deficit management.
Kobe Bryant and several other star athletes have been smart savvy investors.
In collaboration with former Web.com CEO Jeff Stibel, the NBA champion invests in lean enterprises via the venture capital fund Bryant Stibel.
This venture capital fund places $200+ million equity stakes in a new sports drink BodyArmor, an online education platform VIPKid, a video game design company Scopely, an online legal technology firm LegalZoom, a smart restaurant brand Reserve, and an enterprise sales management platform RingDNA.
The Bryant Stibel venture capital return on investment in a big boon to the entrepreneurial ideology of sports star interests in technology, media, big data, and artificial intelligence etc.
Several other superstar athletes invest in their next passions with the same entrepreneurial spirit.
For instance, the tennis champion Serena Williams takes an active equity interest in the meal delivery service Daily Harvest, and her sister Venus Williams invests in a financial app Ellevest that empowers women to better save for retirement.
Also, the Golden State Warriors super star Kevin Durant invests in a delivery service company Postmates, an investment app Acorns for millennials, a drone company Skydio, and a scooter brand LimeBike.
Lean startup investments can reap handsome rewards with reasonable diversification.
Conor McGregor learns a major money lesson from LeBron James.
This vital money lesson suggests that James spends about $1.5 million on his own body each year.
The $1.5 million annual expenditure includes all of the costs of his home gym and trainers, chefs, nutritionists, and massage therapists.
To continue to be fit as an NBA superstar, James understands the self-discipline rule that he should eat-and-train well.
This important investment empowers James to remain at the top of professional basketball.
To the extent that LeBron James continues to be a competitive athlete, Conor McGregor also intends to remain fit in combat sports.
McGregor has been known as one of the flashiest fighters in his UFC profession.
In recent years, McGregor makes millions of dollars per year and has launched his own popular whisky brand Proper No.12 and an apparel line August McGregor.
He buys designer suits and fast cars, and he travels on luxury yachts.
As soon as McGregor learns the vital money lesson from LeBron James, McGregor halts his spending spree to invest more on his own body.
This wise investment can pay off well in the forms of better health, fitness, motivation, and commitment to his lifelong pursuit.
Former basketball star Shaq O'Neal has almost quadrupled his net worth once he learns and applies an ingenious investment strategy from Amazon Founder Jeff Bezos.
In light of this ingenious strategy, Bezos evaluates prospective investment projects in terms of whether these equity investments change and enrich the economic lives of others.
O'Neal indicates that he has almost quadrupled his net worth once he implements this strategy with his personal equity investments in Apple, Google, Las Vegas nightclubs, and fast food franchises (such as Krispy Kreme, Five Guys, Auntie Anne, and Papa John).
In terms of his personal preferences, O'Neal points out that Google equity stakes have been his best investment by far.
Also, O'Neal most enjoys his equity investment in the Krispy Kreme doughnut chain because he is a big fan of fresh doughnuts.
This reasonable mix of fast food, entertainment, and technology allows O'Neal to diversify his equity stakes across several prosperous industries.
The information exchange between Bezos and O'Neal illuminates the fundamental value of equity investment.
Stock ownership can be a sound and efficient investment vehicle for angel investors such as Bezos and O'Neal to be the positive change that they would like to see in the world.
China continues to sell U.S. Treasury bonds amid Sino-American trade truce uncertainty.
In mid-2019, China reduces its U.S. Treasury bond positions by $20.5 billion to $1.12 trillion.
These Treasury bond positions reach their lowest level or 5% of U.S. government debt in 2017-2019 amid Sino-American trade conflict and economic policy uncertainty.
The Chinese Xi administration may use its current status as the top Treasury debtholder as leverage in the next round of trade negotiations.
In response, the Chinese renminbi hovers in the broad range of 6.69x-6.97x per U.S. dollar during the recent time frame.
Some investment bankers speculate that as the largest foreign owner of U.S. government bonds, China may employ the nuclear option by offloading lots of Treasury bonds to trigger subsequent interest rate hikes in America.
These interest rate hikes may inadvertently cause collateral damage to the U.S. economy.
However, Lowy Institute senior fellow Richard McGregor offers the fresh economic insight that China cannot easily manipulate its U.S. Treasury bond portfolio with no negative impact on the Chinese currency and current account deficit.
U.S. trade envoy Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin expect to meet the Chinese hardliners for bilateral trade discussions in Shanghai from late-July to mid-August 2019.
U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange conciliatory gestures at the G20 summit in Japan.
Both presidents agree to a mutual trade truce with 25% tariffs on only $200+ billion Chinese imports (but no further tariffs on the other $325 billion Chinese goods).
U.S. trade envoy Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reconnect with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and Commerce Minister Zhong Shan in their next effort to resolve relentless Sino-American trade disputes.
Both sides agree to resume constructive discussions to ease fears of further trade war escalation after an awkward hiatus as of mid-2019.
Bilateral trade talks continue even though the Trump team accuses Chinese trade technocrats of reneging on their prior commitments to a major landmark deal.
U.S. trade reps emphasize the essential need for China to institute legal changes in the current system of state capitalism, whereas, Chinese trade envoys refrain from engaging in prohibitively costly U.S. export procurement and intellectual property protection and enforcement under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974.
At any rate, both trade teams seek to reframe the current bilateral trade conflict before it becomes an unnecessary tech cold war.
U.S. inflation has become sustainably lower than the 2% policy target in recent years.
As Harvard macrofinance professor Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has remained low and stable since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early-1980s.
The Federal Reserve upholds the Taylor interest rate rule that the federal funds rate should increase by more than the next probable rise in inflation.
This monetary policy rule accords with the U.S. congressional dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment.
In most New Keynesian macroeconomic models, interest rate adjustments can cause real movements in inflation, employment, and the economic output gap due to monopolistic competition and sticky-price persistence.
Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and his MIT PhD student Jordi Gali empirically show that solo price stabilization would be equivalent to trying to stabilize both deviations of general prices and output gaps from their respective targets.
Blanchard and Gali refer to this macroeconomic stabilization rule as the divine coincidence.
However, the divine coincidence may disappear due to real wage rigidities and financial market imperfections.
On balance, mainstream macroeconomic models cannot plausibly explain the recent great moderation of low inflation near 1.5%-2% despite gradual and consistent interest rate cycles.
The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no clear trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
Stanford macrofinance professor John Cochrane disagrees with Harvard macro economist Greg Mankiw with respect to the mysterious and inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
It is difficult to depict a downward Phillips curve for the post-war period because there is no conclusive trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
This empirical result remains true even when we consider alternative measures of inflation such as the deflator for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and core consumer price index (CPI) inflation less food and energy.
Also, the empirical result continues to hold in practice when we consider the economic output gap in lieu of the unemployment rate.
Cochrane suggests no necessary trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the Phillips cloud.
In other words, the Phillips curve is too flat to be true.
This analysis poses a conceptual challenge to New Keynesians who seek to achieve the Federal Reserve dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment.
The central bank can constrain money supply growth as a potential source of economic disturbance; yet, the long-term welfare cost of low inflation has no real impact on economic output, employment, and capital investment.
Many young and mid-career Americans fall into the financial distress trap in rural communities.
A recent analysis of 25,800 zip codes for 99% of the U.S. population compares the consecutive periods from 2007-2011 to 2012-2016.
The primary reasons for U.S. rural distress include a lack of educational attainment, subpar mortgage affordability, unemployment, low income, and stagnant business investment.
Many young and mid-career Americans experience the catch-22 situation with disproportionate student debt, credit card debt, and mortgage delinquency etc.
There is no clear path for these less fortunate Americans to afford moving from the rural areas to more prosperous metropolitan areas.
In the absence of better job opportunities, rural communities remain economically subpar places of residence.
About 65% of the U.S. rural population lives east of the Mississippi River, and half of the rural residents are in the south.
Education represents the faulty line between prosperous and economically subpar communities.
Specifically, prosperous zip codes contain more than 27 million adults with tertiary education, whereas, there are fewer than 5 million adults with equivalent levels of educational attainment in economically subpar communities from Louisiana, New Mexico, and West Virginia to Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi.
Economic inequality remains a major socioeconomic issue in America.
AYA finbuzz podcast August 2019
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The conventional wisdom suggests that chameleons change their skin coloration in order to camouflage their presence for better survival through Darwinian biological evolution.
This naive intuition seems so natural and nomological that most people tend to assume so on the basis of common sense.
However, scientific research shows that chameleons run much faster than their predators.
This fresh insight leads subsequent scientists to view camouflage as only part of the story for this functional skin coloration.
More recent research suggests that chameleons typically vary their skin coloration to express social signals in response to other chameleons, external conditions, and physiological changes.
Specifically, bright skin color signals an aggressive emotion while dark skin color reflects a submissive reaction.
Overall, scientific research trumps basic intuition and common sense. The same idea applies to the economic science of dynamic asset management too.
We often need to learn from fundamental factors in order to decipher economic insights into how macroeconomic fluctuations manifest in the cross-section of average asset returns.
These fundamental factors include the return spreads between the top-to-bottom 30% of individual stocks for size, value, momentum, asset growth, cash profitability, and market risk exposure.
Our proprietary alpha investment algorithm serves this fundamental purpose.
Santa-Barbara political economy professor Benjamin Cohen proposes new countercyclical fiscal stimulus to complement the current low-interest-rate monetary policy.
Cohen indicates that global interest rates persist at low thresholds in the current decade.
In all OECD and several other economies, low interest rates cannot bounce back too far from the zero lower bound during the global financial crisis.
In Japan, Europe, and Switzerland, the risk-free interest rates fall below zero.
In this context, the major central banks have little room for new interest rate reductions as the global economy gradually moves toward the next recession.
In response to the current Sino-U.S. trade truce and Brexit economic uncertainty, Cohen proposes new fiscal stimulus as an alternative policy instrument for global economic revival.
This new fiscal stimulus can manifest in the generic form of tax credits, transfer payments, and government expenditures in health care, infrastructure, education, and technology.
Nevertheless, Cohen adds the cautionary caveat that lawmakers may remain reluctant to increase fiscal deficits on top of post-crisis national debt mountains.
To the extent that legislators may become wary of potential backlash in midterm elections, it is important for politicians and technocrats to strike a better balance between democratic accountability and elite interest entrenchment.
Partisanship matters more than the relative socioeconomic influence of the rich and elite interest groups.
This new trend emerges from the recent empirical analysis of 49 Senate votes on socioeconomic and foreign-policy issues from 2001 to 2015 as well as national survey data from Gallup and Pew.
This empirical analysis shows that the rich elite income groups seem to get what they want from their senators about 60% of the time, whereas, the poor income groups receive a 55% fair chance.
When these socioeconomic echelons oppose each other on both sides of a particular policy issue, Senate votes favor the rich with a significantly higher 63% fair chance.
In this specific scenario where the rich and poor voters oppose each other on a given policy issue, Democratic senators side with the rich only 35% of the time, whereas, Republican senators vote in accordance with rich elite interests 86% of the time.
Since Republicans now hold majority control in Senate, U.S. congressional decisions predominantly benefit the upper echelon because legislators often follow the party line.
Affluent influence that results from U.S. partisan influence can be worrisome.
However, the American median voter experience is not the same as living in an oligarchy.
Warren Buffett indicates that the current cap ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to real GDP seems to be much higher than the long-run average benchmark.
With the current cap ratio of 146.4x, U.S. stock market capitalization represents at least 146 times American national income per annum.
This current cap ratio exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 80x by more than 80%, and is historically second to the peak of irrational exuberance near 148.5x during the dotcom bubble back in March 2000.
From 2018Q3 to 2019Q2, the S&P 500 delivers a 12-month net profit of about $135 per share, and the S&P 500 aggregate share price rises to $3000+ per share.
Thus, the equivalent S&P 500 P/E ratio hovers in the broad range of 22x to 24x.
This narrow range well exceeds the long-run average benchmark of 15x to 16x.
Long-term stock market capitalization and corporate profitability should move in tandem.
If these key metrics stray too far apart, it can be prohibitively expensive for U.S. public corporations to get back to balance.
From this fundamental perspective, the normal stock market forces may pull equity valuation back to the long-run average yardsticks relative to U.S. national income and corporate profitability.
Fundamental factors often reflect macroeconomic innovations and so help inform better stock investment decisions.
Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama and his long-time co-author Ken French empirically discover that several fundamental factors help price the cross-section of average asset returns.
These factors include the average return spreads between the top-and-bottom stock portfolios that the econometrician sorts on size, value, momentum, asset growth, cash profitability, and market risk exposure.
In terms of stock market capitalization, small stocks often outperform large stocks by a significant 5%-7% factor premium.
Value stocks consistently beat glamour stocks by a 7%-9% factor premium.
Further, investors can earn hefty average returns on stocks with high recent price performance, low capital-intensive asset growth, high cash profitability, and low market risk exposure.
AQR Capital investment practitioners find that both value and momentum factor premiums significantly persist in global asset markets.
To the extent that factor premiums exhibit mutual causation with macroeconomic fluctuations, this causation serves as a new condition for fundamental factor selection.
As investors learn from their behavioral biases, quirks, and other investment mistakes, these investors tilt their asset portfolios toward high factor premiums.
This fundamental factor investment approach helps generate consistent supernormal average asset returns in the long run.
The recent British pound depreciation is a big Brexit barometer.
Britain anoints former London mayor and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson as the new prime minister.
The Conservative Party selects Johnson as the successor to Theresa May to set the stage for fresh Brexit negotiations with the European Commission.
This change hits the pound with volatile exchange rate gyrations.
The British pound sinks to the new lowest level of US$1.24 in 2017-2019.
Johnson indicates that he would be keen to force Brexit with or without a post-May deal on October 31, 2019, which is the latest deadline for Britain to depart the European Union.
Alternatively, Britons might consider a second referendum on Brexit with the backstop agreement for free flows of goods between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.
Stock market analysts predict that leaving the European Union without a proper deal would plunge the U.K. into an economic recession due to Eurozone trade constraints and capital outflows.
U.K. stock markets would fall 5% in light of a 2% decrease in economic output, and the pound would likely plummet 10%+.
This prediction accords with what the U.K. Office for Budget Responsibility suggests in its recent report on the British economic outlook.
House Judiciary Committee summons senior executive reps of the tech titans to assess online platforms and their market power.
These tech firms include Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (F.A.M.G.A.).
Congressional committee members focus on whether these tech giants abuse their clout to crush their rivals in social media, e-commerce, software, Internet search, and artificial intelligence.
Antitrust scrutiny and tech compliance stem from the sheer size of F.A.M.G.A. and thus remain key bipartisan regulatory issues in America.
F.A.M.G.A. represent the cumulative $4+ trillion equity valuation or almost 15% of U.S. stock market capitalization, and also amass $180+ billion in pre-tax profits or about 10% of pre-tax profits made by U.S. public corporations.
In recent years, F.A.M.G.A. have spent billions buying rivals to stifle competition.
The major merger deals include:
(1) the $20 billion aggressive acquisitions of Instagram, WhatsApp, and Oculus by Facebook;
(2) the $15 billion acquisitions of Whole Foods Market, CloudEndure, and PillPack by Amazon;
(3) the $45 billion acquisitions of LinkedIn, Skype, GitHub, and Nokia by Microsoft;
(4) the $16 billion acquisitions of DeepMind, Motorola, and Nest by Google; and
(5) the $10 billion acquisitions of Beats, Dialog Semiconductor, Lattice Data, LinX, MapSense, PrimeSense, Semetric Music, Shazam, Topsy, and Turi etc by Apple.
Amazon faces E.U. antitrust scrutiny over the current e-commerce use of merchant data.
The European Commission probes into whether Amazon uses third-party seller data to promote its own products to the detriment of other retailers.
This antitrust investigation serves as an incremental step toward better characterizing Amazon e-commerce business practices.
The preliminary inquiry helps reveal how tech titans such as Amazon may use customer information to reinforce their market power.
The core concern arises from negative feedback from European third-party sellers, retailers, and manufacturers that Amazon has been trying to abuse its dual role as a direct e-commerce competitor and also as an online marketplace for merchants.
Under the current Amazon terms of service for Europe, third-party sellers and other merchants grant Amazon royalty-free rights to use their product information, content, technology, and trademark design etc.
European Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager indicates that global e-commerce platforms should not eliminate consumer benefits such as better product prices and choices through anti-competitive business practices.
E.U. regulators can impose fines up to 10% of global sales; however, some antitrust experts point out the essential need for the European Commission to establish a new precedent of industry standards and best practices for cross-border e-commerce.
Netflix suffers its first major loss of U.S. subscribers due to the recent price hikes.
The company adds only 2.7 million new subscribers in 2019Q2 in stark contrast to 5 million new subscribers that most stock analysts expect to see in the latest income statement.
The disappointment suggests an inevitably high price elasticity of demand for Netflix media services and so causes the recent 11%-14% double-digit depreciation of Netflix shares.
This issue poses a major challenge to the current unsustainable business model as Netflix faces fierce competition from numerous media service and content providers such as Amazon, Apple, Disney, HBO, NBC, WarnerMedia, and YouTube etc.
Netflix may lose valuable subscribers who can choose to switch to several other original content providers.
Specifically, WarnerMedia expects to confirm an exclusive license for HBO to stream one of the most popular TV shows, Friends, in addition to Pretty Little Liars and The Fresh Prince of Bel Air.
Also, NBC seeks to secure the exclusive license for streaming all 9 seasons of The Office.
With 150+ million premium subscribers worldwide, Netflix needs to carefully mull over the next strategic pivot for better monetization (such as online advertisement) to turn around the fundamental economic outlook.
Facebook reaches a $5 billion settlement with Federal Trade Commission over Cambridge Analytica user privacy violations.
Federal Trade Commission (FTC) probes into prevalent user privacy practices across the social media ecosystem of Facebook, Messenger, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
FTC commissioners break along party lines, 3-to-2, as the GOP majority votes line up to support the $5 billion settlement (whereas Democratic commissioners object this pact).
This punitive fine is the single largest one against a tech titan by the FTC to date, but some progressive lawmakers remain furious primarily due to the controversial inadequacy of FTC curtailing future data leaks and breaches of the same sort of Cambridge Analytica.
The Cambridge Analytica data debacle may have already compromised the personal data for about 87 million Facebook users.
FTC requires Facebook to establish a new independent Privacy Committee of directors on the current corporate board.
This committee would oversee all necessary audit functions to ensure strict compliance with FTC privacy rules and best practices.
With 53% majority control rights, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg may inadvertently be able to influence the nomination and appointment of independent directors on the Privacy Committee.
The current settlement can cause ripple effects on the broader corporate governance structure.
McKinsey Global Institute analyzes 315 U.S. cities and 3,000 counties in terms of how tech automation affects their workers in the next 5 to 10 years.
This analysis indicates that the zip code of primary residence may be the most important determinant of the economic future for the middle class.
The 25 U.S. mega-cities and their peripheries are home to about a third of the American workforce.
These metropolitan areas are likely to continue to capture more than 60% of U.S. job growth in the next few years.
By contrast, 54 suburban areas and 2,000 rural counties are home to only a quarter of the U.S. population, and these rural areas may suffer with virtually zero employment growth in the next decade.
In this light, America is a mosaic of local economies that traverse on divergent economic trajectories.
Robotic automation and artificial intelligence may inadvertently widen these economic disparities.
The McKinsey report further indicates that the current tech trends may displace about 12 million Hispanic and African-American workers in the next few years.
The government needs to invest in high education to build the American workforce of the new century, and this public investment should focus on closer employer-educator partnerships.
Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz maintains that globalization only works for a few elite groups; whereas, the government has to reassert itself in terms of both redistribution and regulation.
The rich and elite interest groups have better socioeconomic opportunities than others.
From college education to the family stock ownership of public corporations, these elite groups perpetuate their socioeconomic advantages from generation to generation.
In most tech-savvy sectors, a few dominant tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (F.A.M.G.A.) create almost insurmountable barriers to entry.
Under the Trump administration, banks and insurance companies face less stringent macroprudential rules and regulations; public corporations and high net-worth individuals enjoy lower income taxes; big biotech and pharmaceutical firms and health insurance companies exploit millions of Americans with astronomical medicine prices.
However, U.S. real wages stagnate for the bottom echelon of American society in the 60 years from 1959 to 2019.
The current policy debate calls for greater government investments in infrastructure, education, technology, and environmental sustainability.
The Federal Reserve should herald interest rate adjustments to better ensure inflation control, maximum sustainable employment, and financial market stabilization.
Meanwhile, the Treasury should exercise fiscal prudence and discipline in national debt and budget deficit management.
Kobe Bryant and several other star athletes have been smart savvy investors.
In collaboration with former Web.com CEO Jeff Stibel, the NBA champion invests in lean enterprises via the venture capital fund Bryant Stibel.
This venture capital fund places $200+ million equity stakes in a new sports drink BodyArmor, an online education platform VIPKid, a video game design company Scopely, an online legal technology firm LegalZoom, a smart restaurant brand Reserve, and an enterprise sales management platform RingDNA.
The Bryant Stibel venture capital return on investment in a big boon to the entrepreneurial ideology of sports star interests in technology, media, big data, and artificial intelligence etc.
Several other superstar athletes invest in their next passions with the same entrepreneurial spirit.
For instance, the tennis champion Serena Williams takes an active equity interest in the meal delivery service Daily Harvest, and her sister Venus Williams invests in a financial app Ellevest that empowers women to better save for retirement.
Also, the Golden State Warriors super star Kevin Durant invests in a delivery service company Postmates, an investment app Acorns for millennials, a drone company Skydio, and a scooter brand LimeBike.
Lean startup investments can reap handsome rewards with reasonable diversification.
Conor McGregor learns a major money lesson from LeBron James.
This vital money lesson suggests that James spends about $1.5 million on his own body each year.
The $1.5 million annual expenditure includes all of the costs of his home gym and trainers, chefs, nutritionists, and massage therapists.
To continue to be fit as an NBA superstar, James understands the self-discipline rule that he should eat-and-train well.
This important investment empowers James to remain at the top of professional basketball.
To the extent that LeBron James continues to be a competitive athlete, Conor McGregor also intends to remain fit in combat sports.
McGregor has been known as one of the flashiest fighters in his UFC profession.
In recent years, McGregor makes millions of dollars per year and has launched his own popular whisky brand Proper No.12 and an apparel line August McGregor.
He buys designer suits and fast cars, and he travels on luxury yachts.
As soon as McGregor learns the vital money lesson from LeBron James, McGregor halts his spending spree to invest more on his own body.
This wise investment can pay off well in the forms of better health, fitness, motivation, and commitment to his lifelong pursuit.
Former basketball star Shaq O'Neal has almost quadrupled his net worth once he learns and applies an ingenious investment strategy from Amazon Founder Jeff Bezos.
In light of this ingenious strategy, Bezos evaluates prospective investment projects in terms of whether these equity investments change and enrich the economic lives of others.
O'Neal indicates that he has almost quadrupled his net worth once he implements this strategy with his personal equity investments in Apple, Google, Las Vegas nightclubs, and fast food franchises (such as Krispy Kreme, Five Guys, Auntie Anne, and Papa John).
In terms of his personal preferences, O'Neal points out that Google equity stakes have been his best investment by far.
Also, O'Neal most enjoys his equity investment in the Krispy Kreme doughnut chain because he is a big fan of fresh doughnuts.
This reasonable mix of fast food, entertainment, and technology allows O'Neal to diversify his equity stakes across several prosperous industries.
The information exchange between Bezos and O'Neal illuminates the fundamental value of equity investment.
Stock ownership can be a sound and efficient investment vehicle for angel investors such as Bezos and O'Neal to be the positive change that they would like to see in the world.
China continues to sell U.S. Treasury bonds amid Sino-American trade truce uncertainty.
In mid-2019, China reduces its U.S. Treasury bond positions by $20.5 billion to $1.12 trillion.
These Treasury bond positions reach their lowest level or 5% of U.S. government debt in 2017-2019 amid Sino-American trade conflict and economic policy uncertainty.
The Chinese Xi administration may use its current status as the top Treasury debtholder as leverage in the next round of trade negotiations.
In response, the Chinese renminbi hovers in the broad range of 6.69x-6.97x per U.S. dollar during the recent time frame.
Some investment bankers speculate that as the largest foreign owner of U.S. government bonds, China may employ the nuclear option by offloading lots of Treasury bonds to trigger subsequent interest rate hikes in America.
These interest rate hikes may inadvertently cause collateral damage to the U.S. economy.
However, Lowy Institute senior fellow Richard McGregor offers the fresh economic insight that China cannot easily manipulate its U.S. Treasury bond portfolio with no negative impact on the Chinese currency and current account deficit.
U.S. trade envoy Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin expect to meet the Chinese hardliners for bilateral trade discussions in Shanghai from late-July to mid-August 2019.
U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators hold constructive phone talks after Presidents Trump and Xi exchange conciliatory gestures at the G20 summit in Japan.
Both presidents agree to a mutual trade truce with 25% tariffs on only $200+ billion Chinese imports (but no further tariffs on the other $325 billion Chinese goods).
U.S. trade envoy Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reconnect with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and Commerce Minister Zhong Shan in their next effort to resolve relentless Sino-American trade disputes.
Both sides agree to resume constructive discussions to ease fears of further trade war escalation after an awkward hiatus as of mid-2019.
Bilateral trade talks continue even though the Trump team accuses Chinese trade technocrats of reneging on their prior commitments to a major landmark deal.
U.S. trade reps emphasize the essential need for China to institute legal changes in the current system of state capitalism, whereas, Chinese trade envoys refrain from engaging in prohibitively costly U.S. export procurement and intellectual property protection and enforcement under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974.
At any rate, both trade teams seek to reframe the current bilateral trade conflict before it becomes an unnecessary tech cold war.
U.S. inflation has become sustainably lower than the 2% policy target in recent years.
As Harvard macrofinance professor Robert Barro indicates, U.S. inflation has remained low and stable since the federal funds rate peaked at 22% in the early-1980s.
The Federal Reserve upholds the Taylor interest rate rule that the federal funds rate should increase by more than the next probable rise in inflation.
This monetary policy rule accords with the U.S. congressional dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment.
In most New Keynesian macroeconomic models, interest rate adjustments can cause real movements in inflation, employment, and the economic output gap due to monopolistic competition and sticky-price persistence.
Former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and his MIT PhD student Jordi Gali empirically show that solo price stabilization would be equivalent to trying to stabilize both deviations of general prices and output gaps from their respective targets.
Blanchard and Gali refer to this macroeconomic stabilization rule as the divine coincidence.
However, the divine coincidence may disappear due to real wage rigidities and financial market imperfections.
On balance, mainstream macroeconomic models cannot plausibly explain the recent great moderation of low inflation near 1.5%-2% despite gradual and consistent interest rate cycles.
The Phillips curve becomes the Phillips cloud with no clear trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
Stanford macrofinance professor John Cochrane disagrees with Harvard macro economist Greg Mankiw with respect to the mysterious and inexorable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
It is difficult to depict a downward Phillips curve for the post-war period because there is no conclusive trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
This empirical result remains true even when we consider alternative measures of inflation such as the deflator for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and core consumer price index (CPI) inflation less food and energy.
Also, the empirical result continues to hold in practice when we consider the economic output gap in lieu of the unemployment rate.
Cochrane suggests no necessary trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the Phillips cloud.
In other words, the Phillips curve is too flat to be true.
This analysis poses a conceptual challenge to New Keynesians who seek to achieve the Federal Reserve dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment.
The central bank can constrain money supply growth as a potential source of economic disturbance; yet, the long-term welfare cost of low inflation has no real impact on economic output, employment, and capital investment.
Many young and mid-career Americans fall into the financial distress trap in rural communities.
A recent analysis of 25,800 zip codes for 99% of the U.S. population compares the consecutive periods from 2007-2011 to 2012-2016.
The primary reasons for U.S. rural distress include a lack of educational attainment, subpar mortgage affordability, unemployment, low income, and stagnant business investment.
Many young and mid-career Americans experience the catch-22 situation with disproportionate student debt, credit card debt, and mortgage delinquency etc.
There is no clear path for these less fortunate Americans to afford moving from the rural areas to more prosperous metropolitan areas.
In the absence of better job opportunities, rural communities remain economically subpar places of residence.
About 65% of the U.S. rural population lives east of the Mississippi River, and half of the rural residents are in the south.
Education represents the faulty line between prosperous and economically subpar communities.
Specifically, prosperous zip codes contain more than 27 million adults with tertiary education, whereas, there are fewer than 5 million adults with equivalent levels of educational attainment in economically subpar communities from Louisiana, New Mexico, and West Virginia to Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi.
Economic inequality remains a major socioeconomic issue in America.
AYA finbuzz podcast August 2019
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