AYA Analytica financial health memo March 2019
As of March 2019, this regular podcast is available on our Andy Yeh Alpha fintech network platform.
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposes greater public debt finance with minimal tax increases for the Green New Deal.
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposes greater public debt finance with minimal tax increases for the Green New Deal.
In accordance with the modern monetary theory, the central bank can print money to support greater govrnment expenditures without tax increases as greater labor participation helps close the economic output gap.
In reality, however, the modern monetary theory seems bizarre to many eminent economists such as Paul Krugman and Lawrence Summers.
For the fiscal year 2019-2020, the Trump budget proposal would increase defense expenditures by 5% with 30% budget cuts to health care and environmental protection.
For better border security and immigration, Trump asks for another $5 billion public finance to fulfill his ceampaign promise of a southern border wall.
The Trump $4.75 trillion budget plan has a slim chance of passing through the Democrat-majority House.
All these fiscal details set the stage for another acrimonious battle between Trump and Congress.
Alternatively, the Sargent-Wallace monetarist arithmetic analysis suggests that the government would have to tolerate higher inflation when the central bank raises seigniorage taxes on money supply growth to absorb any discrepancy between new budget deficit and public bond issuance.
The subsequent Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments may thus inadvertently offset the positive economic effect of fiscal stimulus that the Trump administration proposes in the current budget deal.
OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the fiscal year 2019-2020.
OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the fiscal year 2019-2020.
The global economy suffers from economic protraction and uncertainty amid the recent Sino-U.S. trade and Brexit standoffs.
OECD downgrades real GDP growth rates from 6.5% to 6% for China and from 1.5% to 1% for Europe.
The Chinese Xi administration seeks to assuage U.S. concerns about the bilateral trade deficit, unfair technology transfer, and intellectual property protection.
Meanwhile, the British May administration needs to delay Brexit to buy time for a plausible second referendum on whether the U.K. should leave the European trade bloc.
These trade issues cloud macroeconomic momentum in Europe and East Asia.
Several chief economists recommend the European and Asian central banks not to follow the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes too soon.
To the extent that these non-U.S. central banks decelerate the global financial cycle with less hawkish monetary policy decisions, Europe and East Asia can insulate themselves from volatile exchange rates, stock market gyrations, and cross-border capital flows that might arise from the next Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments.
The subsequent international interest rate hikes are likely to reflect recent upticks in consumer confidence, wage growth, and core inflation.
America seeks to advance the global energy dominance agenda by toppling Saudi Arabia as the top oil exporter by 2024.
America seeks to advance the global energy dominance agenda by toppling Saudi Arabia as the top oil exporter by 2024.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) now forecasts that U.S. crude oil exports will double to 9 million barrels per day by 2024.
This U.S. crude oil production surpasses Russian shipments and may eventually overtake Saudi exports.
The same IEA report shows that global oil demand can grow by 1.2 million barrels per day year-in-year-out through 2024.
In recent times, U.S. State Secretary Mike Pompeo meets with top oil executives to help the Trump administration boost oil exports to Asia with draconian economic sanctions on Iran in the form of crude oil embargoes.
This outreach represents a significant new effort to achieve American energy dominance that helps enhance the economic prospects of U.S. oil and natural gas.
This effort wins success and support from China, Japan, and South Korea with more purchases of U.S. oil and gas units.
In contrast to greater U.S. crude oil production, Saudi Arabia seeks to drain global supply glut to support higher oil prices by cutting oil exports to 7 million barrels per day while the Saudi oil output remains well below 10 million barrels per day.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell answers CBS News 60 Minutes questions about the recent U.S. economic outlook and interest rate cycle.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell answers CBS News 60 Minutes questions about the recent U.S. economic outlook and interest rate cycle.
Powell views the current U.S. economic outlook as a favorable one.
The federal funds rate hits the neutral threshold where the U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation.
Powell reiterates the *patient* approach to further raising the interest rate as the U.S. economy grows at a moderate pace.
Although about 7 million Americans fall behind their auto loan payments and retail sales decline at the highest pace in the post-crisis period, Powell remains positive about U.S. economic growth in 2019-2020.
As the U.S. real GDP growth rate increases above 3%, there are healthy upticks in both consumer confidence and wage growth.
In light of the recent Sino-U.S. trade and Brexit negotiations, Powell considers the biggest macro risk to be a probable economic output slowdown in China and Europe.
Powell considers the U.S. financial system to be more resilient with high capital buffers that help absorb extreme losses in rare times of severe financial stress.
The Federal Reserve is independent in the generic sense that the monetary authority needs to execute monetary policy decisions in a strictly non-political way.
Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA).
Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA).
These tech titans have become too dominant and so tend to leverage their market power to squelch competition to the detriment of consumers.
In addition to bulldozing free market competition, these tech titans use private user information for profits, tilt the playing field against small-to-medium enterprises, and thus stifle R&D innovation as their M&A deals encapsulate niche competitors.
For better scale economies and network effects, several strategic M&A examples include the recent acquisitions of Instagram, Whatsapp, and Oculus (by Facebook), DoubleClick, Waze, and Nest (by Google), Whole Foods and Zappos (by Amazon), and Shazam, Texture, InVisage, Regaind, and Lattice Data (by Apple).
Warren further proposes to bar these top platform orchestrators (FAMGA) from sharing private user data with third parties.
Under the Warren proposal, small tech startups would have a fair shot to sell their products on Amazon without the fear of facing fierce competition from Amazon and its affiliates; Google could not smother competitors by demoting their products and services on the Internet search engine; and Facebook would face real pressure from Instagram and WhatsApp to improve the user experience with better privacy protection.
U.S. tech titans now increasingly recruit PhD economists to help solve business problems.
U.S. tech titans now increasingly recruit PhD economists to help solve business problems.
These tech titans include Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Netflix, and Twitter (FAMGANT).
PhD economists exhibit at least 2 critical knowledge-intensive skills that can contribute to effective business solutions.
First, many economists can apply effective empirical methods and quantitative tools to ferret out causal relations in business data.
Second, PhD economists can understand the useful design of both effective incentives and market mechanisms for better business optimization.
In practice, these economists help demystify many empirical puzzles in the tech sector.
For instance, some economists empirically find that Uber Express Pool may inadvertently draw in active users from other Uber products without growing the full Uber user base.
Also, several other economists show that eBay tends to syphon off people who would have come through organic search when the online auction website advertises on Google.
Moreover, some recent economic research demonstrates that many African-American Airbnb users experience rampant racial discrimination.
If tech platforms involve matching users or businesses, market design economists can likely help guide these decisions.
Modern examples of disruptive platform design include Amazon, Airbnb, Tinder, and TripAdvisor etc.
If scale economies are important for the business, major mergers, acquisitions, and exclusive deals may dramatically alter the strategic industry structure and market environment.
For instance, Apple and Alphabet are the dominant duo in the iOS-Android market for mobile devices; Microsoft remains a primary software market player with its Office Suite and Windows operating system; Intel and Qualcomm specialize and dominate in the tech-savvy market for microchips; Google acquires 90% of U.S. online search traffic; Facebook extracts hefty profits in social media advertisements; and Netflix retains key niches in the lucrative business of high-speed original video content distribution.
If tech companies need to analyze large-scale user data to make better business decisions, econometricians can apply logistic regressions, panel estimation methods, and time-series models etc to derive informative business insights into user behaviors, product reviews, and customer interests and preferences.
Smart tech data analyzers include Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Twitter, eBay, PayPal, and IBM etc.
In stark contrast to doctors, engineers, and lawyers who may focus on specific mechanical details and techniques, most economists focus on the bigger picture when they implement empirical methods to solve practical business problems.
On balance, most economists can see both the trees and the forest in critical business decisions when push comes to shove.
U.S. trade envoy Robert Lighthizer recommends America to require regular touchpoints to ensure Sino-U.S. trade deal enforcement.
U.S. trade envoy Robert Lighthizer recommends America to require regular touchpoints to ensure Sino-U.S. trade deal enforcement.
America has to maintain the threat of tit-for-tat tariffs on Chinese goods for many years even though the Trump administration seeks to strike a new agreement with China to end the prohibitively costly Sino-U.S. trade war.
U.S. trade negotiators and lawmakers need to monitor-and-enforce Chinese compliance with the new trade rules.
The Trump administration aims to eradicate the $350 billion bilateral U.S. trade deficit.
In response, the Chinese Xi administration offers to buy $1.2 trillion U.S. goods and services over the next 6 years.
Also, the Trump team plans to deter the Chinese government from forcing U.S. tech companies to involuntarily transfer trade secrets, tech advances, and other major intellectual properties such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights.
On balance, tariffs remain an important tool for the Trump administration to push China to initiate structural trade policy changes in light of the specific perennial enforcement issue.
Due to few major surprises, most U.S. stock market indices such as S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq remain steady after the congressional testimonies by U.S. trade envoy Robert Lighthizer and Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.
CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends Caterpillar and Home Depot as the current U.S. bull market is likely to continue in light of the recent Fed Chair comments.
CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends Caterpillar and Home Depot as the current U.S. bull market is likely to continue in light of the recent Fed Chair comments.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirms a patient approach to U.S. interest rate adjustments.
In his biennial congressional testimony, Powell suggests that there are both economic crosscurrents and headwinds in the U.S. economy.
Although the U.S. economic outlook remains solid, these crosscurrents and headwinds (such as the Sino-American trade and Brexit negotiations) may conflict with the Federal Reserve dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
Economic policy uncertainty revolves around optimal Treasury debt positions, U.S. government budget decisions, and near-term political considerations.
Specifically, Powell reiterates the Federal Reserve plan for balance sheet shrinkage with at least $1 trillion bank reserves through the U.S. real business cycle.
In response, CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends well-known stocks such as Caterpillar and Home Depot in light of the patient Federal Reserve monetary policy stance.
These stocks tend to lose hefty market valuation over the Christmas season.
As the Federal Reserve switches from a hawkish monetary policy stance to a dovish one, the current U.S. bull market can elevate asset prices in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.
Uber seeks an IPO in close competition with its rideshare rival Lyft and other tech firms such as Slack, Pinterest, and Palantir.
Uber seeks an IPO in close competition with its rideshare rival Lyft and other tech firms such as Slack, Pinterest, and Palantir.
Uber expects to complete one of the largest tech IPOs with $120 billion firm valuation in April 2019.
Both Uber and its rideshare rival Lyft announce their recent S-1 confidential paperwork as of December 2018.
With $50 billion taxi reservations and $11 billion net revenue, Uber runs a rideshare user network that is more diverse than the Lyft counterpart.
As a global tech-savvy transportation company, Uber now operates in more than 70 countries with probable stock market valuation as high as $120 billion (well above its current $76 billion private market valuation).
As a smaller rideshare tech firm, Lyft seeks stock market valuation of $20 billion to $25 billion (well above its current private market valuation of $15 billion).
With these astronomical stock market figures, both companies can handle their net losses below $1 billion per annum.
SoftBank Vision Fund and Toyota Motor Corp are now part of a consortium of investors that invest $1 billion in the Uber autonomous car unit.
The current IPO proposal serves as a major strategic move for Uber to garner greater capital.
Lyft seeks to go public with a dual-class stock ownership structure that allows the co-founders to retain significant influence over the rideshare tech unicorn.
Lyft seeks to go public with a dual-class stock ownership structure that allows the co-founders to retain significant influence over the rideshare tech unicorn.
Within this dual-class structure, Class A shares follow the one-share-one-vote rule for new investors, whereas, Class B shares empower the co-founders John Zimmer and Logan Green and their executive managers to have 20 votes per share.
The co-founders and their executive team may end up owning well more than 27% of equity stakes with near-majority control.
The dual-class structure has become prevalent among U.S. public companies such as CBS, Comcast, Facebook, Ford, Google, News Corp, Nike, Snap, and Viacom etc.
The co-founders retain significant influence over most matters that require shareholder approval, such as director elections and significant corporate transactions from M&A deals and capital investment projects to R&D expenditures and other asset sales.
Harvard law professor Lucian Bebchuk criticizes the dual-class stock ownership structure.
The probable costs of a lifetime lock on control tend to be especially large when the co-founders are young at the time of the IPO.
The costs of inferior leadership can substantially rise when the co-founders fail to address dynamic changes in the business environment.
This concern further aggravates when the dual-class structure enables a transfer of founder control to an heir who might be unfit to lead the company.
Many dual-class structures allow controllers to substantially reduce their fraction of equity capital over time without relinquishing control, and controllers often do so to diversify their stock portfolios to fund other investment projects.
When the wedge between the interests of controllers and public investors grows over time, the agency costs of a dual-class structure are likely to increase.
Corporate controllers with a small fraction of equity capital have perverse incentives to retain an inefficient dual-class structure.
The reason is that these controllers would capture only a fraction of efficiency gains (which would be shared by all shareholders), but would fully bear the costs of forgoing the private benefits of control that arise from the dual-class structure.
Bebchuk proposes a sunset provision that stipulates the eventual expiration of dual-class structures after a specific period of time such as 10 years or 15 years.
This proposal empowers founders to retain their lock on corporate control with minimal short-term market pressure in the early-IPO stage of their entrepreneurial efforts; whereas, the dual-class stock ownership structure should eventually converge toward the more efficient first-class structure.
Pinterest files a $12 billion IPO due in mid-2019.
Pinterest files a $12 billion IPO due in mid-2019.
This tech unicorn allows users to pin-and-browse images through its social media app and website.
Pinterest seeks stock market valuation of at least $12 billion that would match the current valuation of Snap Inc, which owns another photo-centric social media app Snapchat.
Pinterest differentiates itself from Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Snapchat etc because this new tech unicorn empowers active users to pin their recent real-life photos that hyperlink to external websites.
For instance, a Pinterest user can pin her photo of a recent restaurant meal that links to an external website where others can find the recipe for the same meal.
In contrast, most other social media apps and websites prefer to retain active users within their respective digital platform ecosystems.
Pinterest has grown its user base to 250 million active users per month as of February 2019; whereas, Facebook keeps 2 billion active users, Instagram has 1 billion, Twitter has about 320 million, and Snapchat has almost 300 million as of early-2019.
As Pinterest moves fast to disrupt the image search space via a $12 billion IPO, several other rideshare rivals Lyft and Uber seek opportunities to go public too.
A physicist derives a mathematical formula that success equates the product of both personal quality and the potential value of a given subject matter.
A physicist derives a mathematical formula that success equates the product of both personal quality and the potential value of a given subject matter.
As a Northeastern University expert on network theory, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi comes up with this simple and ingenious formula when he learns the transformative life stories of numerous people who achieved late-in-life successes.
For instance, a U.S. analytical chemistry professor, John Fenn, conducted his revolutionary research on electrospray ionization at the age of 67 (which contributed to the quick mass measurement of viruses and ribosomes with incredible accuracy) and then received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for this major contribution at the age of 85.
Also, English actor and director Alan Rickman had his first movie role at 46; Julia Child brought French cuisine to the American public in her first TV show at 50; Yitang Zhang derived a revolutionary mathematical proof in his first journal publication and later earned full professorship with several special achievement awards at 57; and Nelson Mandela emerged after 27 years in jail and then became the President of South Africa at 76.
The Barabasi success formula is S=Q*r where S denotes the success of a new deal, or the impact of a major discovery, which equates the product of the Q-factor (innate talent) and the value of a random idea r.
A highly creative and smart person may encounter some ordinary random idea, and this combination leads to a mediocre outcome.
Conversely, an average person may come across a great idea, and this combination still leads to a mediocre result.
Then there are perfect-storm instances where the idea and its creator both shine.
When the Q-factor and the value of a new idea are both high, they enhance each other and result in a major breakthrough.
A classic example is the revolutionary Apple iPhone that integrates the flash of genius in Steve Jobs, an Internet-connective telephone, a music player, and a digital camera into one mobile device.
What illuminates the Barabasi success formula is the realization that if a person has an insufficiently high Q-factor in one vocation, he or she might want to consider switching to a different field where it is attainable to get an exceptionally high Q-factor.
Amazon founder and chairman Jeff Bezos had considered becoming a physicist when he studied at Princeton, and later he realized that this ambition was too remote; as a result, he became an investment banker early in his career and then founded Amazon as an e-commerce startup, and the rest was history.
Overall, these life lessons suggest that one should combine his or her high Q-factor with a healthy quantity of good ideas before the next eureka moment.
We may need to reconsider the new rules of personal finance.
We may need to reconsider the new rules of personal finance.
First, renting a home can be a smart money move, whereas, buying a home cannot always be a good investment.
It can be reasonable to rent a home without opportunity costs such as down payments, maintenance fees, property taxes, interest expenses, and insurance premiums etc.
Investing these opportunity costs in stocks and bonds may yield better long-term returns.
Second, money is an important resource for long-term investment, and time is another key element of successful wealth accumulation.
It takes time for compound interest to exponentially grow at the 6%-11% stock market annual rate of return.
Third, it would be wiser to invest retirement finance in some stock market index to earn the average equity premium around 5%-9% in recent times.
With longer lifespans and lower bond returns, stock market investors can reap higher rewards.
Fourth, it is important to demystify the conventional wisdom that student loans are good debt because education pays handsomely in the form of higher future wages.
However, only postgraduate degrees provide the higher *incremental* wage boost than college degrees.
We should consider these new rules of personal finance during the recent Trump stock market rally.
Tech companies seek to serve as quasi-financial intermediaries.
Tech companies seek to serve as quasi-financial intermediaries.
Many retail traders can now list items for sale on eBay and then acquire these items economically on Amazon for direct shipments when busy buyers place orders on eBay.
These retail traders serve as information arbitrageurs and clip spreads between the divergent prices on Amazon and eBay.
This information arbitrage occurs often enough to be a viable business.
In a practical sense, this information arbitrage proves to be a valuable service at a market price.
Time is finite and human attention is precious such that this intermediary service often turns out to be worthwhile for better immediacy and convenience.
In a similar vein, the online search website for real estate, Zillow Group, now attempts to serve as a quasi-financial intermediary for home purchases and mortgage loans.
Zillow brings back its co-founder and former CEO Rich Barton to lead this ambitious transformation.
Zillow transforms how Americans buy and sell their real estate properties as the tech platform uses both big data analysis and artificial intelligence to change how these residential owners and investors shop for homes with mouse clicks and satellite maps.
Busy buyers pay for immediacy and convenience when they shop for homes on Zillow.
In addition to Amazon-eBay retail arbitrage and Zillow real estate, Apple and Goldman Sachs enter into a strategic alliance to expand the joint credit card business.
Apple pairs the new credit card with key iPhone features such as Face ID to better serve its active users.
This credit card piggybacks on the Mastercard network and offers 2% cash rewards for the vast majority of U.S. online purchases.
Beyond cash bonuses, Apple and Goldman Sachs hope to leverage the Wallet app for tracking account balances and rewards for better personal finance management.
Like Goldman Sachs, big banks shift operational focus from their prior reliance on capital-intensive risk businesses to tech platforms for their tech-savvy clients.
In light of financial distress and post-crisis regulation, these banks prefer to build online platforms for their institutional clients to trade bonds, funds, and other complex securities.
The banks accumulate fees and commissions when these transactions take place for the mutual benefits of both banks and institutional investors themselves.
This fresh logic explains why Apple and Goldman Sachs work together to strengthen their credit card business.
Nowadays Amazon-eBay arbitrageurs and tech titans such as Apple and Zillow seek to serve as quasi-financial intermediaries.
Global economic uncertainty lurks in an even thicker layer of mystery.
Global economic uncertainty lurks in an even thicker layer of mystery.
This uncertainty arises from Sino-U.S. trade tension, Brexit fallout, monetary policy normalization, and financial fragility due to U.S. interest rate and greenback appreciation.
As the Trump administration makes positive progress on Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, most economic pundits and experts expect U.S. monetary policy normalization to continue in 2019-2020 as financial asset returns and factor premiums reflect structural changes in the interest rate and dollar valuation.
Also, the U.K. parliament may initiate a major delay or a second referendum on Brexit.
At the turn of the new century, big data analysis, cloud computation, artificial intelligence, and robotic automation displace many workers and so irrevocably alter the tech structure of employment.
Globalization is another powerful force.
The free movement of goods, services, and people transforms economic integration and global value creation.
This economic trend intensifies competition in the labor market, and the middle class faces higher wage growth, price inflation, human capital depreciation, and unemployment in OECD countries.
In the financial sector, deregulation and capital account liberalization boost international capital flows well above trade.
Post-crisis fintech advances such as crowd funds, peer-to-peer loans, and shadow banks shed skeptical light on the role of financial intermediaries in the monetary transmission mechanism.
As a result, many central banks encounter real wage stagnation, deterioration in both income and wealth distribution, and a major slowdown in productivity growth.
E-commerce tech titans such as Amazon and Alibaba now induce frequent, accurate, and competitive retail price adjustments.
These faster price adjustments effectively flatten the Phillips curve or the inexorable and mysterious trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
This macroeconomic transformation coincides with the new cycle of U.S. interest rate hikes.
Through cross-border capital flows and exchange rate gyrations, U.S. monetary policy changes and trade imbalances can create global financial cycles that radically distort credit conditions in European and Asian economies.
Central banks now need to adopt a cautious, gradual, and data-driven monetary policy approach for sound risk management in light of substantial macro uncertainty.
Also, central banks need to monitor a wide variety of macroprudential indicators such as asset prices, risk premiums, credit supply shocks, and other financial imbalances.
To the extent that both global capital flows and external supply-side shocks aggravate exchange rate volatility, central banks need to preserve greater price flexibility and monetary autonomy.
When push comes to shove, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.
AYA finbuzz podcast March 2019
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Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposes greater public debt finance with minimal tax increases for the Green New Deal.
Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposes greater public debt finance with minimal tax increases for the Green New Deal.
In accordance with the modern monetary theory, the central bank can print money to support greater govrnment expenditures without tax increases as greater labor participation helps close the economic output gap.
In reality, however, the modern monetary theory seems bizarre to many eminent economists such as Paul Krugman and Lawrence Summers.
For the fiscal year 2019-2020, the Trump budget proposal would increase defense expenditures by 5% with 30% budget cuts to health care and environmental protection.
For better border security and immigration, Trump asks for another $5 billion public finance to fulfill his ceampaign promise of a southern border wall.
The Trump $4.75 trillion budget plan has a slim chance of passing through the Democrat-majority House.
All these fiscal details set the stage for another acrimonious battle between Trump and Congress.
Alternatively, the Sargent-Wallace monetarist arithmetic analysis suggests that the government would have to tolerate higher inflation when the central bank raises seigniorage taxes on money supply growth to absorb any discrepancy between new budget deficit and public bond issuance.
The subsequent Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments may thus inadvertently offset the positive economic effect of fiscal stimulus that the Trump administration proposes in the current budget deal.
OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the fiscal year 2019-2020.
OECD cuts the global economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for the fiscal year 2019-2020.
The global economy suffers from economic protraction and uncertainty amid the recent Sino-U.S. trade and Brexit standoffs.
OECD downgrades real GDP growth rates from 6.5% to 6% for China and from 1.5% to 1% for Europe.
The Chinese Xi administration seeks to assuage U.S. concerns about the bilateral trade deficit, unfair technology transfer, and intellectual property protection.
Meanwhile, the British May administration needs to delay Brexit to buy time for a plausible second referendum on whether the U.K. should leave the European trade bloc.
These trade issues cloud macroeconomic momentum in Europe and East Asia.
Several chief economists recommend the European and Asian central banks not to follow the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes too soon.
To the extent that these non-U.S. central banks decelerate the global financial cycle with less hawkish monetary policy decisions, Europe and East Asia can insulate themselves from volatile exchange rates, stock market gyrations, and cross-border capital flows that might arise from the next Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments.
The subsequent international interest rate hikes are likely to reflect recent upticks in consumer confidence, wage growth, and core inflation.
America seeks to advance the global energy dominance agenda by toppling Saudi Arabia as the top oil exporter by 2024.
America seeks to advance the global energy dominance agenda by toppling Saudi Arabia as the top oil exporter by 2024.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) now forecasts that U.S. crude oil exports will double to 9 million barrels per day by 2024.
This U.S. crude oil production surpasses Russian shipments and may eventually overtake Saudi exports.
The same IEA report shows that global oil demand can grow by 1.2 million barrels per day year-in-year-out through 2024.
In recent times, U.S. State Secretary Mike Pompeo meets with top oil executives to help the Trump administration boost oil exports to Asia with draconian economic sanctions on Iran in the form of crude oil embargoes.
This outreach represents a significant new effort to achieve American energy dominance that helps enhance the economic prospects of U.S. oil and natural gas.
This effort wins success and support from China, Japan, and South Korea with more purchases of U.S. oil and gas units.
In contrast to greater U.S. crude oil production, Saudi Arabia seeks to drain global supply glut to support higher oil prices by cutting oil exports to 7 million barrels per day while the Saudi oil output remains well below 10 million barrels per day.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell answers CBS News 60 Minutes questions about the recent U.S. economic outlook and interest rate cycle.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell answers CBS News 60 Minutes questions about the recent U.S. economic outlook and interest rate cycle.
Powell views the current U.S. economic outlook as a favorable one.
The federal funds rate hits the neutral threshold where the U.S. economy operates near full employment with low inflation.
Powell reiterates the *patient* approach to further raising the interest rate as the U.S. economy grows at a moderate pace.
Although about 7 million Americans fall behind their auto loan payments and retail sales decline at the highest pace in the post-crisis period, Powell remains positive about U.S. economic growth in 2019-2020.
As the U.S. real GDP growth rate increases above 3%, there are healthy upticks in both consumer confidence and wage growth.
In light of the recent Sino-U.S. trade and Brexit negotiations, Powell considers the biggest macro risk to be a probable economic output slowdown in China and Europe.
Powell considers the U.S. financial system to be more resilient with high capital buffers that help absorb extreme losses in rare times of severe financial stress.
The Federal Reserve is independent in the generic sense that the monetary authority needs to execute monetary policy decisions in a strictly non-political way.
Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA).
Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes breaking up tech titans such as Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon (FAMGA).
These tech titans have become too dominant and so tend to leverage their market power to squelch competition to the detriment of consumers.
In addition to bulldozing free market competition, these tech titans use private user information for profits, tilt the playing field against small-to-medium enterprises, and thus stifle R&D innovation as their M&A deals encapsulate niche competitors.
For better scale economies and network effects, several strategic M&A examples include the recent acquisitions of Instagram, Whatsapp, and Oculus (by Facebook), DoubleClick, Waze, and Nest (by Google), Whole Foods and Zappos (by Amazon), and Shazam, Texture, InVisage, Regaind, and Lattice Data (by Apple).
Warren further proposes to bar these top platform orchestrators (FAMGA) from sharing private user data with third parties.
Under the Warren proposal, small tech startups would have a fair shot to sell their products on Amazon without the fear of facing fierce competition from Amazon and its affiliates; Google could not smother competitors by demoting their products and services on the Internet search engine; and Facebook would face real pressure from Instagram and WhatsApp to improve the user experience with better privacy protection.
U.S. tech titans now increasingly recruit PhD economists to help solve business problems.
U.S. tech titans now increasingly recruit PhD economists to help solve business problems.
These tech titans include Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Netflix, and Twitter (FAMGANT).
PhD economists exhibit at least 2 critical knowledge-intensive skills that can contribute to effective business solutions.
First, many economists can apply effective empirical methods and quantitative tools to ferret out causal relations in business data.
Second, PhD economists can understand the useful design of both effective incentives and market mechanisms for better business optimization.
In practice, these economists help demystify many empirical puzzles in the tech sector.
For instance, some economists empirically find that Uber Express Pool may inadvertently draw in active users from other Uber products without growing the full Uber user base.
Also, several other economists show that eBay tends to syphon off people who would have come through organic search when the online auction website advertises on Google.
Moreover, some recent economic research demonstrates that many African-American Airbnb users experience rampant racial discrimination.
If tech platforms involve matching users or businesses, market design economists can likely help guide these decisions.
Modern examples of disruptive platform design include Amazon, Airbnb, Tinder, and TripAdvisor etc.
If scale economies are important for the business, major mergers, acquisitions, and exclusive deals may dramatically alter the strategic industry structure and market environment.
For instance, Apple and Alphabet are the dominant duo in the iOS-Android market for mobile devices; Microsoft remains a primary software market player with its Office Suite and Windows operating system; Intel and Qualcomm specialize and dominate in the tech-savvy market for microchips; Google acquires 90% of U.S. online search traffic; Facebook extracts hefty profits in social media advertisements; and Netflix retains key niches in the lucrative business of high-speed original video content distribution.
If tech companies need to analyze large-scale user data to make better business decisions, econometricians can apply logistic regressions, panel estimation methods, and time-series models etc to derive informative business insights into user behaviors, product reviews, and customer interests and preferences.
Smart tech data analyzers include Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Twitter, eBay, PayPal, and IBM etc.
In stark contrast to doctors, engineers, and lawyers who may focus on specific mechanical details and techniques, most economists focus on the bigger picture when they implement empirical methods to solve practical business problems.
On balance, most economists can see both the trees and the forest in critical business decisions when push comes to shove.
U.S. trade envoy Robert Lighthizer recommends America to require regular touchpoints to ensure Sino-U.S. trade deal enforcement.
U.S. trade envoy Robert Lighthizer recommends America to require regular touchpoints to ensure Sino-U.S. trade deal enforcement.
America has to maintain the threat of tit-for-tat tariffs on Chinese goods for many years even though the Trump administration seeks to strike a new agreement with China to end the prohibitively costly Sino-U.S. trade war.
U.S. trade negotiators and lawmakers need to monitor-and-enforce Chinese compliance with the new trade rules.
The Trump administration aims to eradicate the $350 billion bilateral U.S. trade deficit.
In response, the Chinese Xi administration offers to buy $1.2 trillion U.S. goods and services over the next 6 years.
Also, the Trump team plans to deter the Chinese government from forcing U.S. tech companies to involuntarily transfer trade secrets, tech advances, and other major intellectual properties such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights.
On balance, tariffs remain an important tool for the Trump administration to push China to initiate structural trade policy changes in light of the specific perennial enforcement issue.
Due to few major surprises, most U.S. stock market indices such as S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq remain steady after the congressional testimonies by U.S. trade envoy Robert Lighthizer and Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.
CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends Caterpillar and Home Depot as the current U.S. bull market is likely to continue in light of the recent Fed Chair comments.
CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends Caterpillar and Home Depot as the current U.S. bull market is likely to continue in light of the recent Fed Chair comments.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirms a patient approach to U.S. interest rate adjustments.
In his biennial congressional testimony, Powell suggests that there are both economic crosscurrents and headwinds in the U.S. economy.
Although the U.S. economic outlook remains solid, these crosscurrents and headwinds (such as the Sino-American trade and Brexit negotiations) may conflict with the Federal Reserve dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
Economic policy uncertainty revolves around optimal Treasury debt positions, U.S. government budget decisions, and near-term political considerations.
Specifically, Powell reiterates the Federal Reserve plan for balance sheet shrinkage with at least $1 trillion bank reserves through the U.S. real business cycle.
In response, CNBC stock host Jim Cramer recommends well-known stocks such as Caterpillar and Home Depot in light of the patient Federal Reserve monetary policy stance.
These stocks tend to lose hefty market valuation over the Christmas season.
As the Federal Reserve switches from a hawkish monetary policy stance to a dovish one, the current U.S. bull market can elevate asset prices in stocks, bonds, and real estate properties.
Uber seeks an IPO in close competition with its rideshare rival Lyft and other tech firms such as Slack, Pinterest, and Palantir.
Uber seeks an IPO in close competition with its rideshare rival Lyft and other tech firms such as Slack, Pinterest, and Palantir.
Uber expects to complete one of the largest tech IPOs with $120 billion firm valuation in April 2019.
Both Uber and its rideshare rival Lyft announce their recent S-1 confidential paperwork as of December 2018.
With $50 billion taxi reservations and $11 billion net revenue, Uber runs a rideshare user network that is more diverse than the Lyft counterpart.
As a global tech-savvy transportation company, Uber now operates in more than 70 countries with probable stock market valuation as high as $120 billion (well above its current $76 billion private market valuation).
As a smaller rideshare tech firm, Lyft seeks stock market valuation of $20 billion to $25 billion (well above its current private market valuation of $15 billion).
With these astronomical stock market figures, both companies can handle their net losses below $1 billion per annum.
SoftBank Vision Fund and Toyota Motor Corp are now part of a consortium of investors that invest $1 billion in the Uber autonomous car unit.
The current IPO proposal serves as a major strategic move for Uber to garner greater capital.
Lyft seeks to go public with a dual-class stock ownership structure that allows the co-founders to retain significant influence over the rideshare tech unicorn.
Lyft seeks to go public with a dual-class stock ownership structure that allows the co-founders to retain significant influence over the rideshare tech unicorn.
Within this dual-class structure, Class A shares follow the one-share-one-vote rule for new investors, whereas, Class B shares empower the co-founders John Zimmer and Logan Green and their executive managers to have 20 votes per share.
The co-founders and their executive team may end up owning well more than 27% of equity stakes with near-majority control.
The dual-class structure has become prevalent among U.S. public companies such as CBS, Comcast, Facebook, Ford, Google, News Corp, Nike, Snap, and Viacom etc.
The co-founders retain significant influence over most matters that require shareholder approval, such as director elections and significant corporate transactions from M&A deals and capital investment projects to R&D expenditures and other asset sales.
Harvard law professor Lucian Bebchuk criticizes the dual-class stock ownership structure.
The probable costs of a lifetime lock on control tend to be especially large when the co-founders are young at the time of the IPO.
The costs of inferior leadership can substantially rise when the co-founders fail to address dynamic changes in the business environment.
This concern further aggravates when the dual-class structure enables a transfer of founder control to an heir who might be unfit to lead the company.
Many dual-class structures allow controllers to substantially reduce their fraction of equity capital over time without relinquishing control, and controllers often do so to diversify their stock portfolios to fund other investment projects.
When the wedge between the interests of controllers and public investors grows over time, the agency costs of a dual-class structure are likely to increase.
Corporate controllers with a small fraction of equity capital have perverse incentives to retain an inefficient dual-class structure.
The reason is that these controllers would capture only a fraction of efficiency gains (which would be shared by all shareholders), but would fully bear the costs of forgoing the private benefits of control that arise from the dual-class structure.
Bebchuk proposes a sunset provision that stipulates the eventual expiration of dual-class structures after a specific period of time such as 10 years or 15 years.
This proposal empowers founders to retain their lock on corporate control with minimal short-term market pressure in the early-IPO stage of their entrepreneurial efforts; whereas, the dual-class stock ownership structure should eventually converge toward the more efficient first-class structure.
Pinterest files a $12 billion IPO due in mid-2019.
Pinterest files a $12 billion IPO due in mid-2019.
This tech unicorn allows users to pin-and-browse images through its social media app and website.
Pinterest seeks stock market valuation of at least $12 billion that would match the current valuation of Snap Inc, which owns another photo-centric social media app Snapchat.
Pinterest differentiates itself from Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Snapchat etc because this new tech unicorn empowers active users to pin their recent real-life photos that hyperlink to external websites.
For instance, a Pinterest user can pin her photo of a recent restaurant meal that links to an external website where others can find the recipe for the same meal.
In contrast, most other social media apps and websites prefer to retain active users within their respective digital platform ecosystems.
Pinterest has grown its user base to 250 million active users per month as of February 2019; whereas, Facebook keeps 2 billion active users, Instagram has 1 billion, Twitter has about 320 million, and Snapchat has almost 300 million as of early-2019.
As Pinterest moves fast to disrupt the image search space via a $12 billion IPO, several other rideshare rivals Lyft and Uber seek opportunities to go public too.
A physicist derives a mathematical formula that success equates the product of both personal quality and the potential value of a given subject matter.
A physicist derives a mathematical formula that success equates the product of both personal quality and the potential value of a given subject matter.
As a Northeastern University expert on network theory, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi comes up with this simple and ingenious formula when he learns the transformative life stories of numerous people who achieved late-in-life successes.
For instance, a U.S. analytical chemistry professor, John Fenn, conducted his revolutionary research on electrospray ionization at the age of 67 (which contributed to the quick mass measurement of viruses and ribosomes with incredible accuracy) and then received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for this major contribution at the age of 85.
Also, English actor and director Alan Rickman had his first movie role at 46; Julia Child brought French cuisine to the American public in her first TV show at 50; Yitang Zhang derived a revolutionary mathematical proof in his first journal publication and later earned full professorship with several special achievement awards at 57; and Nelson Mandela emerged after 27 years in jail and then became the President of South Africa at 76.
The Barabasi success formula is S=Q*r where S denotes the success of a new deal, or the impact of a major discovery, which equates the product of the Q-factor (innate talent) and the value of a random idea r.
A highly creative and smart person may encounter some ordinary random idea, and this combination leads to a mediocre outcome.
Conversely, an average person may come across a great idea, and this combination still leads to a mediocre result.
Then there are perfect-storm instances where the idea and its creator both shine.
When the Q-factor and the value of a new idea are both high, they enhance each other and result in a major breakthrough.
A classic example is the revolutionary Apple iPhone that integrates the flash of genius in Steve Jobs, an Internet-connective telephone, a music player, and a digital camera into one mobile device.
What illuminates the Barabasi success formula is the realization that if a person has an insufficiently high Q-factor in one vocation, he or she might want to consider switching to a different field where it is attainable to get an exceptionally high Q-factor.
Amazon founder and chairman Jeff Bezos had considered becoming a physicist when he studied at Princeton, and later he realized that this ambition was too remote; as a result, he became an investment banker early in his career and then founded Amazon as an e-commerce startup, and the rest was history.
Overall, these life lessons suggest that one should combine his or her high Q-factor with a healthy quantity of good ideas before the next eureka moment.
We may need to reconsider the new rules of personal finance.
We may need to reconsider the new rules of personal finance.
First, renting a home can be a smart money move, whereas, buying a home cannot always be a good investment.
It can be reasonable to rent a home without opportunity costs such as down payments, maintenance fees, property taxes, interest expenses, and insurance premiums etc.
Investing these opportunity costs in stocks and bonds may yield better long-term returns.
Second, money is an important resource for long-term investment, and time is another key element of successful wealth accumulation.
It takes time for compound interest to exponentially grow at the 6%-11% stock market annual rate of return.
Third, it would be wiser to invest retirement finance in some stock market index to earn the average equity premium around 5%-9% in recent times.
With longer lifespans and lower bond returns, stock market investors can reap higher rewards.
Fourth, it is important to demystify the conventional wisdom that student loans are good debt because education pays handsomely in the form of higher future wages.
However, only postgraduate degrees provide the higher *incremental* wage boost than college degrees.
We should consider these new rules of personal finance during the recent Trump stock market rally.
Tech companies seek to serve as quasi-financial intermediaries.
Tech companies seek to serve as quasi-financial intermediaries.
Many retail traders can now list items for sale on eBay and then acquire these items economically on Amazon for direct shipments when busy buyers place orders on eBay.
These retail traders serve as information arbitrageurs and clip spreads between the divergent prices on Amazon and eBay.
This information arbitrage occurs often enough to be a viable business.
In a practical sense, this information arbitrage proves to be a valuable service at a market price.
Time is finite and human attention is precious such that this intermediary service often turns out to be worthwhile for better immediacy and convenience.
In a similar vein, the online search website for real estate, Zillow Group, now attempts to serve as a quasi-financial intermediary for home purchases and mortgage loans.
Zillow brings back its co-founder and former CEO Rich Barton to lead this ambitious transformation.
Zillow transforms how Americans buy and sell their real estate properties as the tech platform uses both big data analysis and artificial intelligence to change how these residential owners and investors shop for homes with mouse clicks and satellite maps.
Busy buyers pay for immediacy and convenience when they shop for homes on Zillow.
In addition to Amazon-eBay retail arbitrage and Zillow real estate, Apple and Goldman Sachs enter into a strategic alliance to expand the joint credit card business.
Apple pairs the new credit card with key iPhone features such as Face ID to better serve its active users.
This credit card piggybacks on the Mastercard network and offers 2% cash rewards for the vast majority of U.S. online purchases.
Beyond cash bonuses, Apple and Goldman Sachs hope to leverage the Wallet app for tracking account balances and rewards for better personal finance management.
Like Goldman Sachs, big banks shift operational focus from their prior reliance on capital-intensive risk businesses to tech platforms for their tech-savvy clients.
In light of financial distress and post-crisis regulation, these banks prefer to build online platforms for their institutional clients to trade bonds, funds, and other complex securities.
The banks accumulate fees and commissions when these transactions take place for the mutual benefits of both banks and institutional investors themselves.
This fresh logic explains why Apple and Goldman Sachs work together to strengthen their credit card business.
Nowadays Amazon-eBay arbitrageurs and tech titans such as Apple and Zillow seek to serve as quasi-financial intermediaries.
Global economic uncertainty lurks in an even thicker layer of mystery.
Global economic uncertainty lurks in an even thicker layer of mystery.
This uncertainty arises from Sino-U.S. trade tension, Brexit fallout, monetary policy normalization, and financial fragility due to U.S. interest rate and greenback appreciation.
As the Trump administration makes positive progress on Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, most economic pundits and experts expect U.S. monetary policy normalization to continue in 2019-2020 as financial asset returns and factor premiums reflect structural changes in the interest rate and dollar valuation.
Also, the U.K. parliament may initiate a major delay or a second referendum on Brexit.
At the turn of the new century, big data analysis, cloud computation, artificial intelligence, and robotic automation displace many workers and so irrevocably alter the tech structure of employment.
Globalization is another powerful force.
The free movement of goods, services, and people transforms economic integration and global value creation.
This economic trend intensifies competition in the labor market, and the middle class faces higher wage growth, price inflation, human capital depreciation, and unemployment in OECD countries.
In the financial sector, deregulation and capital account liberalization boost international capital flows well above trade.
Post-crisis fintech advances such as crowd funds, peer-to-peer loans, and shadow banks shed skeptical light on the role of financial intermediaries in the monetary transmission mechanism.
As a result, many central banks encounter real wage stagnation, deterioration in both income and wealth distribution, and a major slowdown in productivity growth.
E-commerce tech titans such as Amazon and Alibaba now induce frequent, accurate, and competitive retail price adjustments.
These faster price adjustments effectively flatten the Phillips curve or the inexorable and mysterious trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
This macroeconomic transformation coincides with the new cycle of U.S. interest rate hikes.
Through cross-border capital flows and exchange rate gyrations, U.S. monetary policy changes and trade imbalances can create global financial cycles that radically distort credit conditions in European and Asian economies.
Central banks now need to adopt a cautious, gradual, and data-driven monetary policy approach for sound risk management in light of substantial macro uncertainty.
Also, central banks need to monitor a wide variety of macroprudential indicators such as asset prices, risk premiums, credit supply shocks, and other financial imbalances.
To the extent that both global capital flows and external supply-side shocks aggravate exchange rate volatility, central banks need to preserve greater price flexibility and monetary autonomy.
When push comes to shove, the law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.
AYA finbuzz podcast March 2019
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