AYA Analytica financial health memo February 2019
As of February 2019, this regular podcast is available on our Andy Yeh Alpha fintech network platform.
AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube February 2019
AYA Analytica free finbuzz podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.
In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of February 2019:
(1) our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms S&P 500 and MSCI;
(2) the Trump team makes progress on Sino-U.S. trade negotiations;
(3) Trump signs a compromise deal to avert another government shutdown;
(4) Federal Reserve remains patient on future interest rate increases;
(5) U.S. wealth inequality rises to pre-Great-Depression levels.
New York Fed CEO John Williams sees no need to raise the interest rate unless economic growth or inflation rises to a high gear.
New York Fed CEO John Williams sees no need to raise the interest rate unless economic growth or inflation rises to a high gear.
After raising the interest rate 7 times since early-2017 to 2.25%-2.5%, the Federal Reserve now keeps the economically neutral federal funds rate.
This neutral interest rate helps restore healthy economic growth on the steady-state trajectory with low inflation when the economy operates near full employment.
As of January 2019, the U.S. CPI inflation rate declines from 1.9% to 1.6% slightly below the 2% target level as the U.S. unemployment rate continues to hover around the 3.7% historically low level.
As New York Fed CEO and Federal Reserve Vice Chair, Williams considers the current neutral interest rate to be in a good place.
This current monetary policy stance accords with the congressional dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment.
After the most recent FOMC rate-hike holiday, Federal Reserve governors and presidents indicate their clear intention that it may be about time to end their 3-year drive to tighten monetary policy due to a cloudy U.S. economic outlook.
This cloudy economic outlook arises from several complications such as the Sino-U.S. trade and government budget negotiations.
Chicago financial economist Raghuram Rajan views communities as the third pillar of liberal democracy.
Chicago financial economist Raghuram Rajan views communities as the third pillar of liberal democracy in addition to states and markets.
Rajan suggests that communities serve as an indispensable part of a healthy economic society in stark contrast to a major source of market frictions (which may inhibit the smooth operation of the global economy).
In recent times, both Brexit and the electoral successes of Donald Trump have shaken the dismal science.
Prominent economists begin to consider what can constitute an efficient response to regional economic inequality.
For instance, Lawrence Summers and his co-authors empirically find that both employment subsidies and tax credits should target U.S. regions with more elastic labor participation.
As markets and states interact with socioeconomic webs of human relations, values, and norms, technological phase shifts tend to rip markets out of those old webs with populist backlashes throughout human history.
Socioeconomic interactions eventually gravitate toward a new equilibrium with a messy and arduous transition.
When markets and states scale up, political clout and economic power concentrate in vibrant hubs that prosper to the detriment of peripheral communities.
Democracy preserves market competition, and market competition preserves democracy.
Rajan proposes strengthening communities as an antidote to new socioeconomic challenges.
Apple shakes up senior leadership to initiate a new transition from iPhone revenue reliance to media and software services.
Apple shakes up senior leadership to initiate a smooth transition from iPhone revenue reliance to media and software services.
These changes include the recent promotion of John Giannandrea to senior vice president with primary focus on machine-learning artificial intelligence.
After his promotion, Giannandrea moves Bill Stasior, Head of Siri, to a lower role at the company.
In terms of high-profile departures, Apple retail chief manager Angela Ahrendts decides to leave the company for greener pastures.
These 3 major senior leadership changes take place within the current quarter 2019Q1.
In addition to these personnel updates, Apple trims about 200 employees from its autonomous vehicle project, and continues to redirect its engineering resources into the media services ahead of the next launch of TV video content curation by 2020.
HR reorganizations shift Apple operational focus from iPhone revenue reliance to media and software services.
On balance, these services are likely to generate about $50 billion in sales by 2020 and may account for more than 60% of Apple revenue growth in the next 5 years.
A top Taiwanese Apple analyst, Ming-Chi Kuo, predicts the next phase that Apple will launch 3 brand-new mobile design devices in the fiscal year of 2019-2020.
Kuo is well-known for accurately predicting Apple product launches and their probable revenue and profit forecasts.
These products include a new MacBook Pro laptop with either a 16-inch or 16.5-inch display, a new 31.6-inch monitor with 6,144x3,072 resolution, and a Mac Pro desktop computer.
Kuo believes Apple will release 2 new iPad Pros in 2019, a new iPad Mini, and a new regular iPad to replace the 9.7-inch model with a larger 10.2-inch screen.
Also, Kuo indicates that Apple will unveil 3 new iPhones.
The flagship iPhones have 5.8-inch and 6.5-inch OLED screens, and the more affordable iPhone has a 6.1-inch LCD screen.
These iPhones may come with bigger batteries, better Face ID and wireless navigation, and frosty-glass cases.
With respect to AirPods, Kuo suggests that Apple will launch a new model with wireless charging capability and better Bluetooth in 2019H1.
As Apple transforms its organizational focus from iPhone revenue reliance into both product differentiation and media service diversification, the new Apple income structure can translate both flagship iPhones and non-iPhone mobile design devices into better topline and bottomline figures.
We can expect to see greater operational synergies from these key changes in Apple senior leadership and product and service provision.
U.S. economic inequality increases to pre-Great-Depression levels.
U.S. economic inequality increases to pre-Great-Depression levels.
Berkeley economics professor Gabriel Zucman empirically finds that the top 0.1% richest adults own about 25% of total household wealth in America (in accordance with a similar economic inequality situation back in the 1920s).
When we broaden the core definition of the upper socioeconomic echelon, the top 1% richest households own 40% of total national wealth as of 2016.
This high household wealth share compares with the 25%-30% thresholds back in the 1980s.
Over the past 3 decades, the bottom 90% wealth share has significantly declined in similar proportions.
Russia is the only comparable country with similar wealth inequality.
The current Zucman empirical study resonates with the main themes of persistent global economic inequality in the recent book, Capital in the new century, written by Thomas Piketty.
The root causes of U.S. economic inequality include information technology adoption, elite education, talent concentration, and high-skill human capital shortage.
The government can design affordable college and graduate school education for all young adults to better prepare for their future vocational pursuits.
More ubiquitous information technology adoption allows fresh talents to better appreciate the knowledge productivity gains from smart data analysis, robotic automation, and artificial intelligence etc.
President Trump is open to extending the March 2019 deadline for raising tariffs on Chinese imports.
President Trump is open to extending the March 2019 deadline for raising tariffs on Chinese imports if both sides are close to mutual agreement.
These bilateral negotiations hinge on how both governments can enforce the Sino-U.S. trade pledges.
U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He demonstrate credible progress on the top trade issues between China and America: perennial Sino-U.S. trade deficit and intellectual property protection.
Several economic commentators suggest that it should be relatively easy for China to buy more American goods to help eradicate the current bilateral trade imbalance.
These goods include U.S. aircrafts, automobiles, soya beans, and software products etc.
However, it may be rather difficult for the Trump administration to monitor-and-enforce the defensive protection of U.S. intellectual properties such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights.
The latter perennial dilemma remains a relevant and important issue in the current round of Sino-U.S. bilateral trade negotiations.
If both sides cannot deliver mutual agreement on a sound and reasonable trade deal before the March 2019 deadline, the Trump administration may decide to impose 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese goods and services.
President Trump may choose to extend the deadline when he receives mutual assurance that both sides are close to delivering a trade deal to avert the trade war when these negotiations come to fruition in time.
Most U.S. stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq reap 2%-3% healthy gains as investor optimism stokes over high hopes that both the bilateral diplomats and negotiators can work together to iron out a mutually beneficial trade deal.
Meanwhile, benign U.S. CPI inflation data suggest that the Federal Reserve would maintain steady interest rates in the foreseeable future.
Across Wall Street, the economic consensus view suggests another 2 interest rate hikes in the fiscal year of 2019-2020.
These recent macro milestones mark the new age of international economic policy uncertainty under the Trump administration.
Tax cuts trump trade, and greater government expenditures and capital investments help revamp U.S. public infrastructure, high-skill education, and better border security and immigration.
Pervasive information technology adoption can help augment both capital investment and human capital accumulation to cause greater long-term productivity growth.
This widespread positive externality can lead to healthy spillovers and network effects in light of significant improvements in real macroeconomic indicators such as national income per capita, employment, capital investment, and R&D innovation.
President Trump may reluctantly sign the congressional border wall deal in order to avert another U.S. government shutdown.
President Trump may reluctantly sign the congressional border wall deal in order to avert another U.S. government shutdown.
With his executive power to declare a national emergency, President Trump expresses his displeasure with this compromise, but he has to accept the $1.4 billion border wall deal.
House and Senate negotiators tentatively reach a border security agreement in principle to avoid another partial government shutdown.
Several commentators view this presidential ploy as a risky maneuver that may open the Pandora box of future challenges both in court and in Congress.
The Trump administration seeks alternative public finance to fund the $5 billion southern border wall.
This flagship immigration reform reflects the fact that President Trump faces political opposition from House Democrats with respect to public finance.
This public finance standoff may exacerbate the current U.S. fiscal budget deficit.
In accordance with the Sargent-Wallace unpleasant monetarist arithmetic principle, the monetary authority would need to allow greater money supply growth (or inflation) in the form of higher seigniorage taxes if the fiscal authority continues to fund the budget deficit with incessant public bond issuance.
In this light, the congressional border wall deal has profound policy implications for fiscal equilibrium as well as monetary price stability.
Corporate America uses Trump tax cuts and offshore cash stockpiles primarily to fund share repurchases for better stock market valuation.
Corporate America uses Trump tax cuts and cash stockpiles primarily to fund share repurchases for better stock market valuation.
Share repurchases are a ubiquitous payout practice where public corporations buy back their own shares to return excess capital to most shareholders.
Share repurchases boost stock demand and so artificially inflate EPS concentration.
U.S. public companies initiate $1 trillion share repurchases in the fiscal year of 2018-2019.
In contrast, business investments and job opportunities decelerate as a result.
Rather than spending billions on share repurchases, U.S. public corporations would help society more by reinvesting in profitable projects, plants, and high-skill human resources etc.
For instance, Apple spends more than $30 billion on share repurchases in the fiscal year of 2018-2019.
Apple also plans to pay $38 billion in taxes on offshore cash repatriation with 20,000 new jobs and $30 billion domestic capital investments in the next 5 years.
Several economic pundits and experts suggest that share repurchases disproportionately help the rich because the top 10% income earners own about 80% of U.S. stocks.
This negative feedback loop self-perpetuates and exacerbates income and wealth inequality as the rich reap rewards on their stock market bets to the detriment of the middle class.
Apple provides positive forward guidance on both revenue and profit forecasts for iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks.
Apple provides positive forward guidance on both revenue and profit forecasts for iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks.
Over the Christmas 2018 season, MacBook revenue grows 9%; iPad sales climb 17%; and wearable devices such as Apple Watch and AirPods surge by an impressive 50% growth margin.
Apple reports the first holiday-quarter revenue decline since 2001 primarily because the pricey iconic iPhone X handsets experience a 15% decrease in global sales.
As Apple CEO Tim Cook delivers the non-iPhone revenue results to spark a hefty 4% relief rally in the tech stock market, Apple regains the title of the most valuable U.S. corporation well beyond Microsoft, Amazon, and Google.
With respect to media services, Apple points to the substantial increase in Apple Pay and Apple Music worldwide usage.
The number of global service subscriptions is likely to top half a billion by 2020 (up from 360 million now).
Apple completes several M&A deals such as the music recognition app Shazam and the digital news provider Texture with the grand ambition of quadrupling revenue from media services by 2022.
Without specifying techy details in Apple media services, Cook suggests that the tech titan expects to expand its original video content business in the foreseeable future.
President Trump picks David Malpass to run the World Bank to curb international multilateralism.
President Trump chooses David Malpass to run the World Bank to curb international multilateralism.
The Trump administration seems to prefer bilateral negotiations for favorable fiscal budgets and trade deals.
The World Bank serves the core mission of extending $10+ billion loans to low-income countries to fund investment projects from global markets.
A close competitor is the Chinese Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank that uses dollar diplomacy to win allies without stringent concessions (which the World Bank often would require due to multilateral involvement).
Justin Sandefur, senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, suggests that Malpass shows disdain for the World Bank mission of fighting global poverty just as John Bolton, U.S. national security advisor, shows respect for numerous U.N. endeavors.
The recent nomination of David Malpass as World Bank president threatens an implicit multilateral agreement that the U.S. appoints the head of the World Bank while the European Union appoints the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The current IMF head, Christine Lagarde, is a former French finance minister and warns against the Sino-American trade war, which may be detrimental to the long-term global economic revival.
The Malpass appointment may tilt the delicate balance from E.U. multilateral agreement toward U.S. dominance.
President Trump delivers his second state-of-the-union address to U.S. Congress.
President Trump delivers his second state-of-the-union address to U.S. Congress.
Several main themes emerge from this presidential address.
First, President Trump praises the current 2-year U.S. economic boom and stock market rally.
As Trump remains upbeat about the current U.S. economic outlook, several sectors such as big pharma, transport, and technology benefit much from the current stock market rally.
Second, the Trump administration seeks a bipartisan solution to public finance for his southern border wall for better immigration.
President Trump may find it difficult to compromise on this fiscal issue in the near-term.
Third, Trump aims to implement a structural change to unfair trade practices and chronic trade imbalances in the current trade war resolution with China.
The next summit between Presidents Trump and Xi can reach trade war resolution soon after Trump shakes hands with the North Korean leader Kim Jung-Un in the historic conference in Vietnam in late-February 2019.
Fourth, Trump asks Congress to pass the current bill for modern infrastructure with more than $1 trillion public finance.
Fifth, Trump vows to help reduce astronomical medical costs and drug prices in America.
Through his second state-of-the-union address, President Trump now seeks to make progress on these socioeconomic issues.
President Trump remains optimistic about the Sino-American trade war resolution.
President Trump remains optimistic about the Sino-U.S. trade war resolution of both trade deficit eradication and tech transfer enforcement.
Trump now seeks to enact new economic sanctions with 25% tariffs on Chinese goods and services if the Chinese Xi administration cannot agree to help reduce the U.S. $375 billion bilateral trade deficit.
President Trump suggests a handshake deal instead of a firmer trade agreement when he meets President Xi soon after the second summit between Trump and the North Korean leader Kim Jung-Un in Vietnam later in February 2019.
The Trump trade team continues to be optimistic about the next Sino-U.S. trade war resolution of both better trade balance and tech transfer enforcement.
Trump economic advisors indicate that it is easier for China to buy more American products such as soybeans, cars, and aircrafts etc in order to reduce the current Sino-U.S. trade imbalance.
However, it can be difficult for the Trump administration to strictly enforce complete, verifiable, and irreversible protection of U.S. intellectual properties such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights.
The latter chronic problem persists for years because it is virtually impossible for the U.S. government to meter unfair intellectual property infringement by Chinese tech firms such as HuaWei.
Federal Reserve remains patient on future interest rate adjustments due to trade and fiscal budget negotiations.
Federal Reserve remains patient on future interest rate increases due to global headwinds and impasses over trade and government budget negotiations.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell pledges that future interest rate adjustments react to generic macroeconomic conditions.
Patience is a virtue.
U.S. economic history suggests that the federal funds rate tends to peak in the reasonable range of 5.5%-6.5%.
In contrast, several eminent economists such as former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke suggest that we may enter a new era of persistently low interest rates.
This putative scenario can be good news for debtors such as U.S. households and federal government, the latter of which now carries about $16 trillion public debt.
The same putative scenario may become bad news for most retirees who live off meager interest income on their deposits and annuities.
This low-interest-rate environment can continue to inflate asset prices.
As a result, U.S. stocks soar in response to the dovish monetary policy stance with balance sheet flexibility.
As the Federal Reserve keeps the interest rate in the target range of 2.25%-2.5%, the trade-weighted average U.S. dollar index slips to 91%.
This recent greenback depreciation reflects a major reversal of U.S. credit flows in comparison to the 95% dollar peak back in January 2017.
It can be practical for the U.S. to impose the 2% Warren wealth tax on the rich.
It can be practical for the U.S. to impose the 2% Warren wealth tax on the rich.
Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes a 2% wealth tax on the richest Americans with more than $50 million in total assets.
For the even richer Americans with more than $1 billion total assets, the wealth tax should rise to 3%.
This radical tax proposal may help raise almost $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion in a decade, although this proposal affects only less than 0.1% of American households in accordance with the fiscal estimates of Berkeley economic advisor Emmanuel Saez.
On one hand, this wealth tax can help reduce economic inequality in America by closing the wealth gap between the rich and the middle class.
At the same time, this wealth redistribution can promote better social mobility as the rich Americans may find it difficult to transfer their socioeconomic advantages to the next generation via business ownership, education, and political power.
On the other hand, this wealth tax proposal helps fight tax evasion by wealthy Americans who might try to renounce their U.S. citizenship by tunneling funds abroad.
This proposal is now subject open debate and controversy as the American consensus tilts toward progressive taxation.
The Trump administration teams up with western allies to bar HuaWei and other Chinese tech firms.
The Trump administration teams up with western allies to bar HuaWei and other Chinese tech firms from building the 5G ultra-high speed infrastructure due to national economic security concerns.
Justice Department unseals a pair of cases against HuaWei.
The first indictment accuses HuaWei of trying to steal trade secrets from T-Mobile by promising obscene bonuses to employees who would collect confidential information on telecom competitors.
The second indictment suggests that HuaWei might have worked to skirt U.S. economic sanctions on Iran.
Robert Williams, executive director at Yale Law School and former consultant to the U.S. State Department, suggests that these criminal investigations should not be viewed as part of the current Sino-American trade negotiations because the U.S. law enforcement takes place well in advance of bilateral trade discussions.
The Trump administration now asks its western allies from Britain and Canada to France and Germany to ban HuaWei and Ant Financial Group from getting access to critical technologies such as 5G high-speed telecom networks, fintech payment solutions, smart sensors, and autonomous robots and vehicles.
This case indicates potential fraud on the part of HuaWei CFO and so sends a negative signal that China might rip off American tech firms with chronic trade deficits and unfair tech transfer practices.
Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq.
Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq.
We implement our proprietary alpha investment model for positive U.S. stock signals.
A complete model description is available on our AYA fintech network platform.
Our U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) online publication is available on the World Intellectual Property Office (WIPO) official website.
Every freemium member can sign up for free to check out our proprietary alpha signals on our AYA fintech network platform.
Each freemium member can thus learn from these proprietary alpha signals over time.
The proprietary alpha investment model estimates long-term average abnormal returns for U.S. individual stocks and then ranks these stocks in accordance with their dynamic conditional alpha signals.
Several virtual members follow these dynamic conditional alpha signals to trade U.S. stocks on our AYA fintech network platform.
We track the stock prices and returns for the recent 2-year period from early-February 2017 to early-February 2019.
This data span allows us to conduct an out-of-sample test to assess our proprietary alpha investment model performance in comparison to the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq etc.
S&P 500 yields an 8.5% net overall return per annum (NORPA) while Dow Jones and Nasdaq generate 11.6%-13.4% NORPAs.
MSCI stock market benchmarks deliver 2.5%-8.9% NORPAs (MSCI USA, MSCI World, MSCI Europe, and MSCI Asia).
With our proprietary alpha investment model, all of our virtual members from Chanel Holden and Charlene Vos to Jonah Whanau and Joseph Corr outperform the S&P 500 and MSCI stock market benchmarks with 10.3%-21.9% NORPAs (cf. the above tabular results for all net overall returns per annum (NORPAs)).
In fact, 12 of the 17 virtual stock portfolios deliver higher NORPAs than Dow Jones; and 9 of the 17 virtual stock portfolios yield higher NORPAs than Nasdaq.
The recent double-digits model performance corroborates the scientific fact that our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms almost all of the major stock market benchmarks.
Our recent research suggests that the proprietary alpha investment model captures dynamism in several fundamental factors such as size, value, momentum, asset growth, operating profitability, and market risk exposure (cf. Fama-French fundamental factors).
Also, the empirical evidence indicates substantial mutual causation between macroeconomic innovations and dynamic conditional alphas.
This causal relation serves as a core qualifying condition for fundamental factor selection in our modern asset pricing model design and performance evaluation.
In conclusion, we help demystify the pervasive misconception that it is often difficult for individual investors to beat the long-term average 11% stock market return.
Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq.
We implement our proprietary alpha investment model for positive U.S. stock signals.
A complete model description is available on our AYA fintech network platform.
Our U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patent publication is available on the World Intellectual Property Office (WIPO) website.
Every freemium member can sign up for free to check out our proprietary alpha signals on our AYA fintech network platform.
Each freemium member can thus learn from these proprietary alpha signals over time.
AYA finbuzz podcast February 2019
AYA Analytica is our online regular podcast and newsletter about key financial news, market insights, economic issues, and stock investment strategies on our Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) fintech network platform. With both American focus and international reach, our primary and ultimate corporate mission aims to help enhance financial literacy, inclusion, and freedom of the open and diverse global general public. We apply our unique dynamic conditional alpha investment model as the first aid for every investor with profitable asset investment signals and portfolio strategies. In fact, our AYA freemium fintech network platform curates, orchestrates, and provides proprietary software technology and algorithmic cloud service to most members who can interact with one another on our AYA fintech network platform. Multiple blogs, posts, ebooks, analytical reports, stock alpha signals, and asset omega estimates offer proprietary solutions and substantive benefits to empower each financial market investor through technology, education, and social integration. Please feel free to sign up or login to enjoy our new and unique cloud software services on AYA fintech network platform now!!
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We create each free finbuzz (or free financial buzz) as a blog post on the latest financial news and asset investment ideas. Our finbuzz collection demonstrates our unique American focus with global reach. Each free finbuzz provides deep insights into numerous topical issues in global finance, stock market investment, portfolio optimization, and dynamic asset management. We strive to help enrich the economic lives of most investors who would otherwise engage in financial data analysis with inordinate time commitment.
Please feel free to forward our finbuzz to family and friends, peers, colleagues, classmates, and others who might be keen and abuzz to learn more about asset investment strategies and modern policy reforms with macroeconomic insights.
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Our new alpha model empowers members to be a wiser stock market investor with profitable alpha signals!! This proprietary quantitative analysis applies the collective wisdom of Warren Buffett, George Soros, Carl Icahn, Mark Cuban, Tony Robbins, and Nobel Laureates in finance such as Robert Engle, Eugene Fama, Lars Hansen, Robert Lucas, Robert Merton, Edward Prescott, Thomas Sargent, William Sharpe, Robert Shiller, and Christopher Sims.
Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) fintech network platform serves as each investor's social toolkit for profitable investment management. AYA fintech network platform helps promote better financial literacy, inclusion, and freedom of the global general public. We empower investors through technology, education, and social integration.
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AYA Analytica finbuzz podcast channel on YouTube February 2019
AYA Analytica free finbuzz podcast provides fresh insights into the latest stock market news, economic trends, and investment portfolio strategies.
In this podcast, we discuss several topical issues as of February 2019:
(1) our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms S&P 500 and MSCI;
(2) the Trump team makes progress on Sino-U.S. trade negotiations;
(3) Trump signs a compromise deal to avert another government shutdown;
(4) Federal Reserve remains patient on future interest rate increases;
(5) U.S. wealth inequality rises to pre-Great-Depression levels.
New York Fed CEO John Williams sees no need to raise the interest rate unless economic growth or inflation rises to a high gear.
New York Fed CEO John Williams sees no need to raise the interest rate unless economic growth or inflation rises to a high gear.
After raising the interest rate 7 times since early-2017 to 2.25%-2.5%, the Federal Reserve now keeps the economically neutral federal funds rate.
This neutral interest rate helps restore healthy economic growth on the steady-state trajectory with low inflation when the economy operates near full employment.
As of January 2019, the U.S. CPI inflation rate declines from 1.9% to 1.6% slightly below the 2% target level as the U.S. unemployment rate continues to hover around the 3.7% historically low level.
As New York Fed CEO and Federal Reserve Vice Chair, Williams considers the current neutral interest rate to be in a good place.
This current monetary policy stance accords with the congressional dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment.
After the most recent FOMC rate-hike holiday, Federal Reserve governors and presidents indicate their clear intention that it may be about time to end their 3-year drive to tighten monetary policy due to a cloudy U.S. economic outlook.
This cloudy economic outlook arises from several complications such as the Sino-U.S. trade and government budget negotiations.
Chicago financial economist Raghuram Rajan views communities as the third pillar of liberal democracy.
Chicago financial economist Raghuram Rajan views communities as the third pillar of liberal democracy in addition to states and markets.
Rajan suggests that communities serve as an indispensable part of a healthy economic society in stark contrast to a major source of market frictions (which may inhibit the smooth operation of the global economy).
In recent times, both Brexit and the electoral successes of Donald Trump have shaken the dismal science.
Prominent economists begin to consider what can constitute an efficient response to regional economic inequality.
For instance, Lawrence Summers and his co-authors empirically find that both employment subsidies and tax credits should target U.S. regions with more elastic labor participation.
As markets and states interact with socioeconomic webs of human relations, values, and norms, technological phase shifts tend to rip markets out of those old webs with populist backlashes throughout human history.
Socioeconomic interactions eventually gravitate toward a new equilibrium with a messy and arduous transition.
When markets and states scale up, political clout and economic power concentrate in vibrant hubs that prosper to the detriment of peripheral communities.
Democracy preserves market competition, and market competition preserves democracy.
Rajan proposes strengthening communities as an antidote to new socioeconomic challenges.
Apple shakes up senior leadership to initiate a new transition from iPhone revenue reliance to media and software services.
Apple shakes up senior leadership to initiate a smooth transition from iPhone revenue reliance to media and software services.
These changes include the recent promotion of John Giannandrea to senior vice president with primary focus on machine-learning artificial intelligence.
After his promotion, Giannandrea moves Bill Stasior, Head of Siri, to a lower role at the company.
In terms of high-profile departures, Apple retail chief manager Angela Ahrendts decides to leave the company for greener pastures.
These 3 major senior leadership changes take place within the current quarter 2019Q1.
In addition to these personnel updates, Apple trims about 200 employees from its autonomous vehicle project, and continues to redirect its engineering resources into the media services ahead of the next launch of TV video content curation by 2020.
HR reorganizations shift Apple operational focus from iPhone revenue reliance to media and software services.
On balance, these services are likely to generate about $50 billion in sales by 2020 and may account for more than 60% of Apple revenue growth in the next 5 years.
A top Taiwanese Apple analyst, Ming-Chi Kuo, predicts the next phase that Apple will launch 3 brand-new mobile design devices in the fiscal year of 2019-2020.
Kuo is well-known for accurately predicting Apple product launches and their probable revenue and profit forecasts.
These products include a new MacBook Pro laptop with either a 16-inch or 16.5-inch display, a new 31.6-inch monitor with 6,144x3,072 resolution, and a Mac Pro desktop computer.
Kuo believes Apple will release 2 new iPad Pros in 2019, a new iPad Mini, and a new regular iPad to replace the 9.7-inch model with a larger 10.2-inch screen.
Also, Kuo indicates that Apple will unveil 3 new iPhones.
The flagship iPhones have 5.8-inch and 6.5-inch OLED screens, and the more affordable iPhone has a 6.1-inch LCD screen.
These iPhones may come with bigger batteries, better Face ID and wireless navigation, and frosty-glass cases.
With respect to AirPods, Kuo suggests that Apple will launch a new model with wireless charging capability and better Bluetooth in 2019H1.
As Apple transforms its organizational focus from iPhone revenue reliance into both product differentiation and media service diversification, the new Apple income structure can translate both flagship iPhones and non-iPhone mobile design devices into better topline and bottomline figures.
We can expect to see greater operational synergies from these key changes in Apple senior leadership and product and service provision.
U.S. economic inequality increases to pre-Great-Depression levels.
U.S. economic inequality increases to pre-Great-Depression levels.
Berkeley economics professor Gabriel Zucman empirically finds that the top 0.1% richest adults own about 25% of total household wealth in America (in accordance with a similar economic inequality situation back in the 1920s).
When we broaden the core definition of the upper socioeconomic echelon, the top 1% richest households own 40% of total national wealth as of 2016.
This high household wealth share compares with the 25%-30% thresholds back in the 1980s.
Over the past 3 decades, the bottom 90% wealth share has significantly declined in similar proportions.
Russia is the only comparable country with similar wealth inequality.
The current Zucman empirical study resonates with the main themes of persistent global economic inequality in the recent book, Capital in the new century, written by Thomas Piketty.
The root causes of U.S. economic inequality include information technology adoption, elite education, talent concentration, and high-skill human capital shortage.
The government can design affordable college and graduate school education for all young adults to better prepare for their future vocational pursuits.
More ubiquitous information technology adoption allows fresh talents to better appreciate the knowledge productivity gains from smart data analysis, robotic automation, and artificial intelligence etc.
President Trump is open to extending the March 2019 deadline for raising tariffs on Chinese imports.
President Trump is open to extending the March 2019 deadline for raising tariffs on Chinese imports if both sides are close to mutual agreement.
These bilateral negotiations hinge on how both governments can enforce the Sino-U.S. trade pledges.
U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He demonstrate credible progress on the top trade issues between China and America: perennial Sino-U.S. trade deficit and intellectual property protection.
Several economic commentators suggest that it should be relatively easy for China to buy more American goods to help eradicate the current bilateral trade imbalance.
These goods include U.S. aircrafts, automobiles, soya beans, and software products etc.
However, it may be rather difficult for the Trump administration to monitor-and-enforce the defensive protection of U.S. intellectual properties such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights.
The latter perennial dilemma remains a relevant and important issue in the current round of Sino-U.S. bilateral trade negotiations.
If both sides cannot deliver mutual agreement on a sound and reasonable trade deal before the March 2019 deadline, the Trump administration may decide to impose 25% tariffs on $200 billion Chinese goods and services.
President Trump may choose to extend the deadline when he receives mutual assurance that both sides are close to delivering a trade deal to avert the trade war when these negotiations come to fruition in time.
Most U.S. stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq reap 2%-3% healthy gains as investor optimism stokes over high hopes that both the bilateral diplomats and negotiators can work together to iron out a mutually beneficial trade deal.
Meanwhile, benign U.S. CPI inflation data suggest that the Federal Reserve would maintain steady interest rates in the foreseeable future.
Across Wall Street, the economic consensus view suggests another 2 interest rate hikes in the fiscal year of 2019-2020.
These recent macro milestones mark the new age of international economic policy uncertainty under the Trump administration.
Tax cuts trump trade, and greater government expenditures and capital investments help revamp U.S. public infrastructure, high-skill education, and better border security and immigration.
Pervasive information technology adoption can help augment both capital investment and human capital accumulation to cause greater long-term productivity growth.
This widespread positive externality can lead to healthy spillovers and network effects in light of significant improvements in real macroeconomic indicators such as national income per capita, employment, capital investment, and R&D innovation.
President Trump may reluctantly sign the congressional border wall deal in order to avert another U.S. government shutdown.
President Trump may reluctantly sign the congressional border wall deal in order to avert another U.S. government shutdown.
With his executive power to declare a national emergency, President Trump expresses his displeasure with this compromise, but he has to accept the $1.4 billion border wall deal.
House and Senate negotiators tentatively reach a border security agreement in principle to avoid another partial government shutdown.
Several commentators view this presidential ploy as a risky maneuver that may open the Pandora box of future challenges both in court and in Congress.
The Trump administration seeks alternative public finance to fund the $5 billion southern border wall.
This flagship immigration reform reflects the fact that President Trump faces political opposition from House Democrats with respect to public finance.
This public finance standoff may exacerbate the current U.S. fiscal budget deficit.
In accordance with the Sargent-Wallace unpleasant monetarist arithmetic principle, the monetary authority would need to allow greater money supply growth (or inflation) in the form of higher seigniorage taxes if the fiscal authority continues to fund the budget deficit with incessant public bond issuance.
In this light, the congressional border wall deal has profound policy implications for fiscal equilibrium as well as monetary price stability.
Corporate America uses Trump tax cuts and offshore cash stockpiles primarily to fund share repurchases for better stock market valuation.
Corporate America uses Trump tax cuts and cash stockpiles primarily to fund share repurchases for better stock market valuation.
Share repurchases are a ubiquitous payout practice where public corporations buy back their own shares to return excess capital to most shareholders.
Share repurchases boost stock demand and so artificially inflate EPS concentration.
U.S. public companies initiate $1 trillion share repurchases in the fiscal year of 2018-2019.
In contrast, business investments and job opportunities decelerate as a result.
Rather than spending billions on share repurchases, U.S. public corporations would help society more by reinvesting in profitable projects, plants, and high-skill human resources etc.
For instance, Apple spends more than $30 billion on share repurchases in the fiscal year of 2018-2019.
Apple also plans to pay $38 billion in taxes on offshore cash repatriation with 20,000 new jobs and $30 billion domestic capital investments in the next 5 years.
Several economic pundits and experts suggest that share repurchases disproportionately help the rich because the top 10% income earners own about 80% of U.S. stocks.
This negative feedback loop self-perpetuates and exacerbates income and wealth inequality as the rich reap rewards on their stock market bets to the detriment of the middle class.
Apple provides positive forward guidance on both revenue and profit forecasts for iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks.
Apple provides positive forward guidance on both revenue and profit forecasts for iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks.
Over the Christmas 2018 season, MacBook revenue grows 9%; iPad sales climb 17%; and wearable devices such as Apple Watch and AirPods surge by an impressive 50% growth margin.
Apple reports the first holiday-quarter revenue decline since 2001 primarily because the pricey iconic iPhone X handsets experience a 15% decrease in global sales.
As Apple CEO Tim Cook delivers the non-iPhone revenue results to spark a hefty 4% relief rally in the tech stock market, Apple regains the title of the most valuable U.S. corporation well beyond Microsoft, Amazon, and Google.
With respect to media services, Apple points to the substantial increase in Apple Pay and Apple Music worldwide usage.
The number of global service subscriptions is likely to top half a billion by 2020 (up from 360 million now).
Apple completes several M&A deals such as the music recognition app Shazam and the digital news provider Texture with the grand ambition of quadrupling revenue from media services by 2022.
Without specifying techy details in Apple media services, Cook suggests that the tech titan expects to expand its original video content business in the foreseeable future.
President Trump picks David Malpass to run the World Bank to curb international multilateralism.
President Trump chooses David Malpass to run the World Bank to curb international multilateralism.
The Trump administration seems to prefer bilateral negotiations for favorable fiscal budgets and trade deals.
The World Bank serves the core mission of extending $10+ billion loans to low-income countries to fund investment projects from global markets.
A close competitor is the Chinese Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank that uses dollar diplomacy to win allies without stringent concessions (which the World Bank often would require due to multilateral involvement).
Justin Sandefur, senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, suggests that Malpass shows disdain for the World Bank mission of fighting global poverty just as John Bolton, U.S. national security advisor, shows respect for numerous U.N. endeavors.
The recent nomination of David Malpass as World Bank president threatens an implicit multilateral agreement that the U.S. appoints the head of the World Bank while the European Union appoints the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The current IMF head, Christine Lagarde, is a former French finance minister and warns against the Sino-American trade war, which may be detrimental to the long-term global economic revival.
The Malpass appointment may tilt the delicate balance from E.U. multilateral agreement toward U.S. dominance.
President Trump delivers his second state-of-the-union address to U.S. Congress.
President Trump delivers his second state-of-the-union address to U.S. Congress.
Several main themes emerge from this presidential address.
First, President Trump praises the current 2-year U.S. economic boom and stock market rally.
As Trump remains upbeat about the current U.S. economic outlook, several sectors such as big pharma, transport, and technology benefit much from the current stock market rally.
Second, the Trump administration seeks a bipartisan solution to public finance for his southern border wall for better immigration.
President Trump may find it difficult to compromise on this fiscal issue in the near-term.
Third, Trump aims to implement a structural change to unfair trade practices and chronic trade imbalances in the current trade war resolution with China.
The next summit between Presidents Trump and Xi can reach trade war resolution soon after Trump shakes hands with the North Korean leader Kim Jung-Un in the historic conference in Vietnam in late-February 2019.
Fourth, Trump asks Congress to pass the current bill for modern infrastructure with more than $1 trillion public finance.
Fifth, Trump vows to help reduce astronomical medical costs and drug prices in America.
Through his second state-of-the-union address, President Trump now seeks to make progress on these socioeconomic issues.
President Trump remains optimistic about the Sino-American trade war resolution.
President Trump remains optimistic about the Sino-U.S. trade war resolution of both trade deficit eradication and tech transfer enforcement.
Trump now seeks to enact new economic sanctions with 25% tariffs on Chinese goods and services if the Chinese Xi administration cannot agree to help reduce the U.S. $375 billion bilateral trade deficit.
President Trump suggests a handshake deal instead of a firmer trade agreement when he meets President Xi soon after the second summit between Trump and the North Korean leader Kim Jung-Un in Vietnam later in February 2019.
The Trump trade team continues to be optimistic about the next Sino-U.S. trade war resolution of both better trade balance and tech transfer enforcement.
Trump economic advisors indicate that it is easier for China to buy more American products such as soybeans, cars, and aircrafts etc in order to reduce the current Sino-U.S. trade imbalance.
However, it can be difficult for the Trump administration to strictly enforce complete, verifiable, and irreversible protection of U.S. intellectual properties such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights.
The latter chronic problem persists for years because it is virtually impossible for the U.S. government to meter unfair intellectual property infringement by Chinese tech firms such as HuaWei.
Federal Reserve remains patient on future interest rate adjustments due to trade and fiscal budget negotiations.
Federal Reserve remains patient on future interest rate increases due to global headwinds and impasses over trade and government budget negotiations.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell pledges that future interest rate adjustments react to generic macroeconomic conditions.
Patience is a virtue.
U.S. economic history suggests that the federal funds rate tends to peak in the reasonable range of 5.5%-6.5%.
In contrast, several eminent economists such as former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke suggest that we may enter a new era of persistently low interest rates.
This putative scenario can be good news for debtors such as U.S. households and federal government, the latter of which now carries about $16 trillion public debt.
The same putative scenario may become bad news for most retirees who live off meager interest income on their deposits and annuities.
This low-interest-rate environment can continue to inflate asset prices.
As a result, U.S. stocks soar in response to the dovish monetary policy stance with balance sheet flexibility.
As the Federal Reserve keeps the interest rate in the target range of 2.25%-2.5%, the trade-weighted average U.S. dollar index slips to 91%.
This recent greenback depreciation reflects a major reversal of U.S. credit flows in comparison to the 95% dollar peak back in January 2017.
It can be practical for the U.S. to impose the 2% Warren wealth tax on the rich.
It can be practical for the U.S. to impose the 2% Warren wealth tax on the rich.
Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren proposes a 2% wealth tax on the richest Americans with more than $50 million in total assets.
For the even richer Americans with more than $1 billion total assets, the wealth tax should rise to 3%.
This radical tax proposal may help raise almost $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion in a decade, although this proposal affects only less than 0.1% of American households in accordance with the fiscal estimates of Berkeley economic advisor Emmanuel Saez.
On one hand, this wealth tax can help reduce economic inequality in America by closing the wealth gap between the rich and the middle class.
At the same time, this wealth redistribution can promote better social mobility as the rich Americans may find it difficult to transfer their socioeconomic advantages to the next generation via business ownership, education, and political power.
On the other hand, this wealth tax proposal helps fight tax evasion by wealthy Americans who might try to renounce their U.S. citizenship by tunneling funds abroad.
This proposal is now subject open debate and controversy as the American consensus tilts toward progressive taxation.
The Trump administration teams up with western allies to bar HuaWei and other Chinese tech firms.
The Trump administration teams up with western allies to bar HuaWei and other Chinese tech firms from building the 5G ultra-high speed infrastructure due to national economic security concerns.
Justice Department unseals a pair of cases against HuaWei.
The first indictment accuses HuaWei of trying to steal trade secrets from T-Mobile by promising obscene bonuses to employees who would collect confidential information on telecom competitors.
The second indictment suggests that HuaWei might have worked to skirt U.S. economic sanctions on Iran.
Robert Williams, executive director at Yale Law School and former consultant to the U.S. State Department, suggests that these criminal investigations should not be viewed as part of the current Sino-American trade negotiations because the U.S. law enforcement takes place well in advance of bilateral trade discussions.
The Trump administration now asks its western allies from Britain and Canada to France and Germany to ban HuaWei and Ant Financial Group from getting access to critical technologies such as 5G high-speed telecom networks, fintech payment solutions, smart sensors, and autonomous robots and vehicles.
This case indicates potential fraud on the part of HuaWei CFO and so sends a negative signal that China might rip off American tech firms with chronic trade deficits and unfair tech transfer practices.
Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq.
Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq.
We implement our proprietary alpha investment model for positive U.S. stock signals.
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Several virtual members follow these dynamic conditional alpha signals to trade U.S. stocks on our AYA fintech network platform.
We track the stock prices and returns for the recent 2-year period from early-February 2017 to early-February 2019.
This data span allows us to conduct an out-of-sample test to assess our proprietary alpha investment model performance in comparison to the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq etc.
S&P 500 yields an 8.5% net overall return per annum (NORPA) while Dow Jones and Nasdaq generate 11.6%-13.4% NORPAs.
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The recent double-digits model performance corroborates the scientific fact that our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms almost all of the major stock market benchmarks.
Our recent research suggests that the proprietary alpha investment model captures dynamism in several fundamental factors such as size, value, momentum, asset growth, operating profitability, and market risk exposure (cf. Fama-French fundamental factors).
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In conclusion, we help demystify the pervasive misconception that it is often difficult for individual investors to beat the long-term average 11% stock market return.
Our proprietary alpha investment model outperforms the major stock market benchmarks such as S&P 500, MSCI, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq.
We implement our proprietary alpha investment model for positive U.S. stock signals.
A complete model description is available on our AYA fintech network platform.
Our U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) patent publication is available on the World Intellectual Property Office (WIPO) website.
Every freemium member can sign up for free to check out our proprietary alpha signals on our AYA fintech network platform.
Each freemium member can thus learn from these proprietary alpha signals over time.
AYA finbuzz podcast February 2019
AYA Analytica is our online regular podcast and newsletter about key financial news, market insights, economic issues, and stock investment strategies on our Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) fintech network platform. With both American focus and international reach, our primary and ultimate corporate mission aims to help enhance financial literacy, inclusion, and freedom of the open and diverse global general public. We apply our unique dynamic conditional alpha investment model as the first aid for every investor with profitable asset investment signals and portfolio strategies. In fact, our AYA freemium fintech network platform curates, orchestrates, and provides proprietary software technology and algorithmic cloud service to most members who can interact with one another on our AYA fintech network platform. Multiple blogs, posts, ebooks, analytical reports, stock alpha signals, and asset omega estimates offer proprietary solutions and substantive benefits to empower each financial market investor through technology, education, and social integration. Please feel free to sign up or login to enjoy our new and unique cloud software services on AYA fintech network platform now!!
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We create each free finbuzz (or free financial buzz) as a blog post on the latest financial news and asset investment ideas. Our finbuzz collection demonstrates our unique American focus with global reach. Each free finbuzz provides deep insights into numerous topical issues in global finance, stock market investment, portfolio optimization, and dynamic asset management. We strive to help enrich the economic lives of most investors who would otherwise engage in financial data analysis with inordinate time commitment.
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Do you find it difficult to beat the long-term average 11% stock market return?
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Our new alpha model empowers members to be a wiser stock market investor with profitable alpha signals!! This proprietary quantitative analysis applies the collective wisdom of Warren Buffett, George Soros, Carl Icahn, Mark Cuban, Tony Robbins, and Nobel Laureates in finance such as Robert Engle, Eugene Fama, Lars Hansen, Robert Lucas, Robert Merton, Edward Prescott, Thomas Sargent, William Sharpe, Robert Shiller, and Christopher Sims.
Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) fintech network platform serves as each investor's social toolkit for profitable investment management. AYA fintech network platform helps promote better financial literacy, inclusion, and freedom of the global general public. We empower investors through technology, education, and social integration.
Andy Yeh
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Brass Ring International Density Enterprise (BRIDE)
We should not conform to this world, but we should allow the renewal of our minds to transform us, so that we can prove what is the good, acceptable, and perfect will of God.
Romans 12: 2
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