AYA Analytica financial health memo April 2017

As of April 2017, this regular podcast is available on our Andy Yeh Alpha fintech network platform.

The Economist interviews President Trump and spots the keyword *reciprocity* from trade to taxation.
The Economist interviews President Donald Trump and spots the keyword *reciprocity* in many aspects of Trumponomics from trade and taxation to infrastructure and financial deregulation.
The New Keynesian core expression of *priming the pump* can lead to greater economic growth with some fiscal deficit at least in the short run. According to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, this additional economic growth can raise at least $2 trillion in tax revenue over the next 10-year period. Also, the indefinite Trump tax holiday serves as a clear incentive for U.S. multinational corporations to repatriate offshore cash from tax havens up to $350 billion per year to invest in American job creation, manufacturing automation, technological innovation, and superior service provision.
In contrast to the core crux of Glass-Steagall Act, Trump and Mnuchin cannot envision breaking up the big banks that currently enjoy expansive economies of scale and scope. Post-Dodd-Frank deregulation provides an opportunity for bank stocks to outperform relative to the long-term average stock market P/E ratio of 15x to 16x.
While tax cuts trump trade, these tidal traces of Trumponomics shine fresh light on the new supply-side U.S. macroeconomic policy agenda in the Republican administration.

These famous quotes of self-made billionaires are inspirational words of wisdom on investment management.
These famous quotes of self-made billionaires are inspirational words of wisdom on financial management, innovation, and entrepreneurship.
For financial investment decisions, we should be fearful when others are greedy, and we should be greedy when others are fearful.
For entrepreneurial ambitions, we need not focus on money all the time; instead, we should focus on making an impact in our open global society.
For innovative breakthroughs, our frugality can be a major plus because frugal innovation is often the key to success in today's business world.
For environmental responsibilities, it is relatively simple to make money today, but it is difficult for one to make sustainable money while he or she remains responsible to the society in improving the global environment.
In any case, we should strive to *learn* fresh insights and ideas just as students try to accomplish bigger and better achievements with a positive attitude toward continual improvements in small but significant increments over time.

Warren Buffett points out that many people misunderstand his stock investment method in several ways.
In his latest Berkshire Hathaway annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett points out that many people misunderstand his stock investment method in several ways.
First, his long-term buy-and-hold method does not apply to special cases that warrant an immediate exit strategy. For instance, Warren Buffett has sold major equity stakes in AT&T, Deere, P&G, IBM, and most importantly, Walmart.
Second, Warren Buffett expects medium-term consolidation and transformation within the air transport industry. For this reason, he retains substantial equity stakes in Delta, South West, and United Continental Airlines.
In regard to the latter major stock sale, Warren Buffett praises the recent rise and success of Amazon (i.e. Walmart's closest online retail rival).
Third, Warren Buffett simply laughs at his own *stupidity* in neglecting the epic ecommerce success of Amazon, Alibaba, Google, and Apple. While he retains an active interest in Apple as now the world's largest corporation and dividend payer, Buffett thinks that he needs a cultural change in his ambivalent attitude toward technology stocks with decent fundamental prospects.
Overall, these points help clarify the common misconception of Warren Buffett's long-term buy-and-hold value investment strategy.

President Trump meets the CEOs of tech titans such as Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.
President Donald Trump has discussed with the CEOs of large multinational corporations such as Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. This discussion includes Apple CEO Tim Cook, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, Palantir CEO Alex Karp, and many more. Trump calls for a sweeping transformation of the U.S. government's IT infrastructure to catch up with the private sector.
Apple CEO Tim Cook suggests that the government can embed the essential programming tools and skills in standard school curriculum in order to promote better cybersecurity, encryption, and smart data analysis.
The corporate leaders affirm and welcome the Trump tax incentive plan to boost U.S. economic output, employment, and stock market performance. FAMGA can then repatriate their abundant offshore cash stockpiles to invest in strategic mergers and acquisitions of small tech startups with proprietary technologies to complement FAMGA's extant platforms, networks, and algorithms.
In recent years, we have seen several strategic tech-savvy acquisitions: Apple acquires Anobit and AuthenTec; Amazon acquires Zappos, Kiva Systems, and Whole Foods; Google acquires YouTube, Motorola, and DeepMind; Facebook acquires WhatsApp, Instagram, and Oculus; Microsoft acquires Genee, Skype, LinkedIn, Solair, and Datazen etc. This tech trend continues as FAMGA keeps its dominant position in the markets for mobile technologies, software solutions, and cloud services.

Ivanka Trump softens her father's brash and combative image with a social agenda toward female empowerment.
To complement President Trump's pro-business economic policies such as low taxation, new infrastructure, greater job creation, and technological innovation with a 3% GDP growth rate and a target inflation rate in the healthy range of 2.2%-2.8%, Ivanka Trump softens her father's brash and combative image with a social agenda toward female empowerment, childcare, and maternity leave.
Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared Kushner, both senior advisors to the president, help prevent an open trade war and military confrontation between America and China. Meanwhile, however, some regulatory agencies probe into Jared Kushner's close ties with Russia and Ivanka Trump's cosmetic product penetration in China. These non-economic issues may complicate the Kushner couple's soft and significant role in the White House in light of Trump's supply-side pro-growth economic policy agenda and his recent retreat from the Paris climate accord. This latter withdrawal causes several American CEOs such as Tesla and Space X CEO Elon Musk and Disney CEO Bob Iger to back out of Trump's advisory economic council. Whether President Trump can continue to gain ubiquitous support from key industry leaders remains an open controversy.

Fundamental value investors find it more difficult to ferret out individual stocks.
Fundamental value investors, who intend to manage their stock portfolios like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, now find it more difficult to ferret out individual stocks that currently experience substantial market undervaluation. During the current economic boom, a rising tide lifts all boats, especially for tech firms, banks, and energy companies. Written by Parnassus equity portfolio managers, this article seems to emphasize the general observation that most health care and biotech stocks seem reasonably cheap relative to most market benchmarks.
However, we believe it is not likely for these health care and biotech stocks to bounce back during the current Trump administration. President Trump seeks to cut medical costs and drug prices substantially in the next few years to make health care more affordable for the American middle class without Obamacare.
The resultant competitive landscape for these health care and biotech firms becomes a unique one with fewer moats across the pharmaceutical industry spectrum. This key motif serves as part of the broader mantra of Trumponomics.
This analysis draws investor attention to big banks with minimal financial stress (after they pass the Federal Reserve's macroprudential stress test), tech stocks with average P/E ratios well above 25x (especially for FAMGA aka Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon), and energy companies (such as PSX or Phillips 66 that Warren Buffett has included as a new value stock in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio in recent times).
The law of inadvertent consequences counsels caution.

Federal Reserve confirms that all of the 34 major banks pass their annual CCAR macro stress tests.
The Federal Reserve rubber-stamps the positive conclusion that all of the 34 major banks pass their annual CCAR macro stress tests for the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. These banks are Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs etc, which respond to this great news by increasing their hefty dividends and share repurchases (upward 65% from the previous fiscal year). Fed approval motivates all of the largest banks to achieve healthy equity capital levels and most major banks to substantially improve their ongoing capital adequacy plans.
The only exception is Capital One, which needs to resubmit its capital adequacy plan later. In response to this approval, many of these banks have announced to distribute more than 85% of current net income to their shareholders in the form of cash dividends and share repurchases in the next few years. Whether the Trump administration overhauls Dodd-Frank macroprudential stress tests with leaner financial regulation remains a hidden catalyst for the current stock market rally for banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions. Fiscal stimulus and lower corporate income taxation boost bank stock prices.
Overall, bank stocks are likely to fare better under the Trump administration that intends to make financial deregulation more efficient for long-term sustainable operating profitability, market valuation, and asset growth. Fintech innovation can serve as a core moat for the U.S. financial sector's competitive advantage in the next decade.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has released a 147-page report on U.S. financial deregulation.
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has released a 147-page report on financial deregulation under the Trump administration. This financial deregulation seeks to remove many aspects of the Dodd-Frank Act 2010 that arose in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. These aspects include the $50 billion asset threshold for annual CCAR macro stress tests, the prudential standards for total capital adequacy, more efficient bank failure resolution through the pre-emptive formation of living wills, and supplementary leverage with more liquid assets under Basel 3. Many financial institutions such as large bank holding companies, community banks, insurance companies, and fund management firms are popping champagne corks to celebrate this financial deregulation.
Most of these deregulatory measures can be enacted and then enforced by executive orders without the need to trudge through long legislative review. This recent progress can bolster the Trump stock market rally, especially for financial stocks, whereas, many market observers continue to be wary about the capital adequacy of financial institutions.
Nevertheless, financial institutions should hold substantially more equity capital as an effective cushion against potential large losses that might emerge in times of severe financial stress.

Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon account for more than 15% of market capitalization of the U.S. stock market.
FAMGA stands for Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. These tech giants account for more than 15% of market capitalization of the American stock market (NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX). Facebook's recent acquisitions of WhatsApp, Instagram, and Oculus have expanded the social media network to encapsulate more than 2 billion active users worldwide. At present, Google still beats Facebook in terms of average revenue per user (ARPU) (about $45 vis-a-vis $20) and dominates the global Internet search and advertisement market.
Microsoft heralds its latest Windows 10 operating system updates and Office 365 suites for better user experience and word-of-mouth proliferation. Moreover, Amazon introduces Retail 2.0 or the Internet of Everything (IoE) in lieu of typical e-commerce with its recent acquisition of Whole Foods to better compete with Wal-Mart, Best Buy, Macy's, Neiman Marcus, JC Penny, and so on.
Apple brings about its iPhone X with AMOLED curvy touch screen and wireless charging functions to celebrate the 10th anniversary of its revolutionary smart phone launch. Many upstream international iPhone suppliers experience hefty stock market gains in recent times. We expect FAMGA to continue to dominate in social media, IoE, software, Internet search and advertisement, and mobile technology with their *competitive moats* from rare and inimitable patents and new proprietary technologies to increasingly inclusive and powerful platforms, networks, and algorithms.

Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most valuable public companies in the world.
America's Top 5 tech firms, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook have become the most valuable publicly listed companies in the world. These tech firms are worth $2.9 trillion in total market capitalization, generate about $150 billion annual net income, and hoard $350 billion in net cash.
In fact, these tech giants hold about 80% of their cash stockpiles in offshore tax havens. In addition to their precautionary motive to maintain massive cash to safeguard against a potential global credit crunch and refinancing risk due to short debt maturity, there is a genuine and legitimate reason for these tech firms to engage in active, effective, and legitimate tax avoidance.
In the next few years, these tech firms plan to implement share repurchases to return decent and generous cash distributions to their shareholders.
In the highly probable scenario of a key Trump tax holiday for U.S. multinational corporations, these tech firms can repatriate $300+ billion to invest in onshore job creation, technological innovation, and manufacturing automation without any draconian tax penalties. These tech firms may repatriate sufficient cash to invest in new acquisitions of smaller startups that specialize in a broad range of proprietary technologies such as artificial intelligence, digital media, robotic automation, and virtual reality.


Andy Yeh Alpha (AYA) AYA Analytica financial health memo (FHM)
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We should not conform to this world, but we should allow the renewal of our minds to transform us, so that we can prove what is the good, acceptable, and perfect will of God.
Romans 12: 2

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